Top Traders Unplugged

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making,  complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MRzepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 3:14 - Macro recap from Niels 6:36 - Weekly review of returns 57:46 - Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance? 1:08:29 - Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF? 1:14:42 - Q3; Craig: Do you think CTAs are missing out by not trading small-cap crypto, and do you think they will eventually? 1:24:03 - Performance recap 1:25:25 - Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq Subscribe on:

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:33 - Macro recap from Niels 4:45 - Weekly review of returns 32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade? 48:32 - Q2; Karl:  When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of? 53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years? 1:02:58 - Performance recap 1:03:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Diego Parilla Subscribe on:

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk.  We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios. Check out the episode that sparked today’s debate here! If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive , @RJParkerJr09, & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:45 - Macro recap from Niels 3:33 - Weekly review of returns 10:10 - Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate 53:13 - Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals? 56:58 - Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend strength? 1:05:14 - Q3, Q4, Q5 & Q6: Doogie; How can retail investors in the UK gain access to different CTA funds? Do you trade pair spreads?  Why doesn’t Rob trade Bitcoin futures yet?  Are Trend Following & Market Making returns correlated? 1:09:44 - Q7, Q8 & Q9: Gustavo; How do you manage to transition from an old system to a new system? With a non-binary system, how do you reduce multi-month futures contracts?  Do you adjust moving average signals according to recent volatility? 1:15:39 - Performance recap 1:16:31 - You can now join us in conversation on Clubhouse on most Wednesdays 1:17:16 - Recommended listening or reading this week: The Anatomy of Bond ETF Arbitrage by the Bank of International Settlements, Pfizer's Abusive Vaccine Deals & Michael Goldstein on ‘Controlling The Bitcoin Rhetoric’     Subscribe on:

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the Gamestop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MRzepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:46 - Macro recap from Niels 5:18 - Weekly review of returns 1:04:48 - Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas? 1:10:49 - Performance recap 1:12:25 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks' latest memo 1:14:34 - Announcement: Special episode next week featuring both Jerry Parker & Rob Carver Subscribe on:

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold. Check out our interview with Turtle Trading legends Richard Dennis & Jerry Parker here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @RJParkerJr09 And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:28 - Macro recap from Niels 3:30 - Weekly review of returns 30:49 - Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program?  What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s? 59:43 - Q1; Mohjeet: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends? 1:02:36 - Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment? 1:13:25 - Performance recap 1:14:24 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes Podcast  Subscribe on:

Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:16 - Macro recap from Niels 4:57 - Weekly review of returns 41:32 - Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change? 47:10 - Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance? 49:59 - Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss 55:14 - Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets? 1:00:56 - Performance recap 1:21:21 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & Jeremy Grantham on the Meb Faber show Subscribe on:

Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:25 - Macro recap from Niels 4:27 - Weekly review of returns 42:32 - Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades? 48:47 - Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions? 59:22 - Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability?  Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create? 1:15:39 - Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or only enter the positions once new signals arrive? 1:21:14 - Q6; Red Eagle:  How often do you see a trade that goes long in one pair, and short in another pair, and do you get excited at this?  Alternatively, do you worry when both pairs are long or short? 1:25:50 - Q7; Cordura:  Do you recommend Trend Following on indices only? 1:31:57 - Performance recap 1:32:49 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Article in the Financial Times on Melvin Capital & the Gamestop frenzy, Hussman Funds recent market comments & Salem Abraham on the Meb Faber podcast Subscribe on:

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MRzepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:23 - Macro recap from Niels 5:24 - Weekly review of returns 1:04:34 - Q1; Jonah: Do you recommend adding to a position as the trend develops? 1:12:46 - Performance recap 1:14:27 - Recommended listening or reading this week: The Resilience Engineering website & Danielle DiMartino Booth interviews Vikram Mansharamani on YouTube Subscribe on:

Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @RJParkerJr09 And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:41 - Macro recap from Niels 3:54 - Weekly review of returns 52:18 - Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases? 57:55 - Performance recap 1:21:21 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, Corey Hoffstein on Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast & Jack Schwager on The Derivative Podcast Subscribe on:

In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures.  Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out?  What are your views on stop-losses? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:40 - Macro recap from Niels 5:06 - Weekly review of returns 53:15 - Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach? 59:14 - Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades? 1:12:09 - Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers? 1:17:30 - Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs? 1:20:22 - Performance recap 1:21:21 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art Berman & Danielle Dimartino-Booth on The Felder Report Podcast Subscribe on:

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 3:07 - Macro recap from Niels 3:59 - Weekly review of returns 47:20 - Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally? 54:42 - Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio? 1:02:30 - Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions? 1:08:46 - Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment? 1:14:37 - Performance recap 1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine's articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: 'Gamblers' & Tim Harford's Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID Vaccine Subscribe on:

In this episode, we conclude our special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system.  We also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Subscribe on:

In today’s special episode, we go into some depth about how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program.  We also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:37 - A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show 3:35 - 2020 Macro recap from Niels 6:51 - How to think about trading and system development 31:59 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Today we welcome back Jerry Parker onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Jerry on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @RJParkerJr09 And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:28 - Macro recap from Niels 4:13 - Weekly review of returns 12:34 - What is risk management? 57:50 - Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies? 1:00:54 - Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains? 1:14:37 - Performance recap 1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & Jack Schwager on the Systematic Investor Podcast Subscribe on:

Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year. Check out Mark’s blog here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @MrZepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:17 - Macro recap from Niels 2:40 - Weekly review of returns 13:15 - Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be? 27:07 - Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners? 53:09 - Trend Following as a store of value 1:07:42 - Performance recap 1:08:32 - Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have. 1:08:45 - Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & A Deflationary World with Jeff Boothe on the Investors Podcast Network Subscribe on:

Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how do define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:15 - Macro recap from Niels 5:14 - Weekly review of returns 52:51 - Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years?  What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns? 20:49 - Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again? 25:26 - Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity? 32:00 - Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth? 1:03:18 - Performance recap 1:06:10 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcast Subscribe on:

"I think astrology is not about getting fame by predicting some negative event. Astrology is about guiding someone, to help people." - Mahendra Sharma (Tweet) I first interviewed today's guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000...a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January. Thanks for listening and please welcome back to the show our guest Mahendra Sharma. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How Mahendra got into astrology Why he relocated to Kenya as a young man Why Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global markets Why Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11 How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking for How astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approaches How human behavior fits into the astrological process Mahendra's prediction of Tesla from 2018 "The truth about it is money plays a central role in this life, and we can do a lot of good things with it." - Mahendra Sharma (Tweet) What are Mahendra's predictions for 2021 What trend the European equities markets will follow Why Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024 The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequence Mahendra's interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052 Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming out What commodities stand out to Mahendra Mahendra's prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021 Why investors should be careful after 2024 Connect with Financial Astrology: Visit the Website: mahendraprophecy.com Call Financial Astrology: +1-805-403-4781 E-Mail: mahendra@mahendraprophecy.com Follow Mahendra Sharma on LinkedIn   "What I am seeing now, today, definitely the Dow will hit 32,000. There is no doubt about it." - Mahendra Sharma (Tweet) Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Show More

In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more. Thanks to Gene for submitting your voicemail to the show.  If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:33 - Macro recap from Niels 3:17 - Weekly review of returns 8:13 - Q1, via voicemail, from Gene in New Zealand: Is it ok to ignore perceived anomalies & outdated occurrences in historical data? 20:49 - Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again? 25:26 - Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity? 32:00 - Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth? 39:49 - Performance recap 41:10 - Recommended podcast listening this week: The Vinklevoss Twins on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & Robert Breedlove on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast (Investors Podcast Network) Subscribe on:

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record.  Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following?  Do you recommend any hedging strategies? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive,  @MoritzSeibert & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:35 - Macro recap from Niels 4:59 - Weekly review of returns 27:16 - Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with? 37:36 - Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns?  Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions? 1:03:57 - Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models? 1:22:48 - Performance recap 1:23:48 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & blog post on the Robot Wealth website regarding Tesla's inclusion in the S&P 500 & William White talking to Jim Grant on Real Vision Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).  Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:02 - Macro recap from Niels 3:09 - Weekly review of returns 28:30 - Q1; James: Would your rules suit cash equities only? 38:54 - Q2; Anti: Shorter-term strategies seem to have done well in the last 5 years, should we be looking to trade these shorter timeframes, instead of the longer-term timeframes? 46:54 - Q3; Michael: What are your thoughts on trading in smaller markets such as butter, rough rice & oats? 1:00:18 - Performance recap 1:06:07 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Stephanie Kelton on the Macro Voices Podcast & Chris Cole on the Grant Williams Podcast   Subscribe on:

"No matter what happens, food and land is the immovable constant in our lives." - Artem Milinchuk (Tweet) Artem Milinchuk is the CEO and Founder of FarmTogether, a firm specializing in farmland investments. Artem was born in the waning days of the Soviet Union, and while growing up in Russia, saw the importance of access to fresh food for a society. Artem joins us today to talk about his investment journey and why he feels that having farmland as an asset class in your investment portfolio can be one of the smartest investment moves you can make. Thanks for listening and please welcome our guest Artem Milinchuk. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How the transition from the Soviet Union to Russia influenced Artem's investment strategies What exactly constitutes farmland as an asset class How investing in farmland has changed over the past 40 years How farmland investments help multigenerational families keep their farms What is the main driver for investors to move into farmland Why investors include farmland in their portfolios as an inflation-proof asset How reliable is farmland investment data "Seventy percent of farmland is going to change hands in the next 20 years." - Artem Milinchuk (Tweet) What effect will climate change have on farmland investments How secure are government farm subsidies The effect 5G will have on farming and farmland investing What are the risks to consider when investing in farmland What is FarmTogether's farmland investment process How should an investor go about incorporating farmland into their portfolio How much does an investor need in order to purchase a farm What types of investors seek out farmland What are the key questions potential investors should be asking before investing in farmland Connect with FarmTogether: Visit the Website: FarmTogether.com Call FarmTogether: +1 415-876-5587 E-Mail FarmTogether: info@farmtogether.com Follow Artem on LinkedIn   "This is an asset class that belongs in everyone's portfolios." - Artem Milinchuk (Tweet) Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Artem: You know, we all need food: whether it's a recession; whether it's COVID; whether it's the 2008 Financial Crisis, people need to eat. So, during those periods farming has actually done tremendously well. Intro: Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders, imaging learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more, welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today’s conversation remember to keep two things in mind: all the discussion that we’ll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there’s a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies and you need to request and understand the specific risks, from the investment manager, about their products before you make investment decisions. Here’s your host, veteran hedge fund manager Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Niels: Hey everyone and welcome to another edition of Top Traders Unplugged where today I'm joined by Artem Milinchock, who is the founder and CEO of FarmTogether. Today we are continuing our journey into the world of alternative investments. First off, Artem, thanks so much for coming on the podcast. I'm excited for you to be here. Artem: Thank you, Niels, I am excited to talk with you. Niels: Absolutely, now, what's really exciting for me about our conversation is that it's a new asset class for me and, I think, for many of our listeners as well.

Today, we welcome legendary author Jack Schwager onto the show to discuss his new book ‘Unknown Market Wizards’ and a range of topics such as: what timeframe makes the most successful trader, how the best traders seem to have uncorrelated returns to the overall stock market, why elite traders can often have terrible starts to their careers, how embracing risk management can take returns to a much higher level, what investors should look for in a money manger, mean-reversion versus momentum trading, and a lot more. Find out more about Jack’s work here and here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Jack on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @JackSchwager And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:27 - Macro recap from Niels 2:17 - Weekly review of returns 5:01 - Niels: Where do systematic traders tend to rank in your book, compared to discretionary traders?  What is the minimum length of track record you looked at, to be considered for inclusion in your book? 10:50 - Moritz:  To what extent did mean reversion traders feature in your book, versus momentum-orientated traders? 16:47 - Niels: How much do you think luck played a part in the results of the traders in your new book? 23:01 - Moritz: When you were interviewing the traders in your book, did you, at any time, get the feeling that there were tailwinds, outside of their control, that helped their strategies? 27:41 - Niels: Some of the traders in your book blew up their accounts a few times, so can they still be called ‘wizards’ of the market? 34:37 - Moritz: There seems to be opposing views on diversification in your book. What are your thoughts on this? 39:07 - Niels: How do you think about the slight contradiction of discretionary traders being unemotional and not falling in love with their opinions? 41:26 - Moritz: Do you think it’s possible to train random people to be great traders, as in the Turtle Traders, or do you need to be born with certain skills? 45:44 - Niels: Do you believe that earlier market wizards had a different set of skills today’s market wizards? 53:35 - Niels: How do we inform investors to avoid ‘straight-line’ equity returns and embrace inconsistency a little more? 59:10 - Moritz: To what extent can you separate long-term traders & short-term traders in the Unknown Market Wizards book ? 1:02:13 - Niels: Which statistics would you pay most attention to if you had to build a system? 1:06:13 - Niels: If you were an investor, and you had to find a manager, and you could only ask them one question, what would it be? 1:07:43 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property.  Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations?  Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:12 - Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast ???? 2:30 - Macro recap from Niels 4:43 - Weekly review of returns 16:38 - Q1; Matt: How do I incorporate external money into my trading strategy, and, alternatively, should I avoid it? 34:17 - Q2; Brian: How do experienced CTAs trade limit-down or limit-up situations? 46:54 - Q3; Panagiotis: Do you see any other uses for machine learning in Trend Following strategies, other than Risk Parity? 1:00:05 - Q4; Craig: Should I stick with my profit targets, or let my winners run? 1:04:46 - Performance recap 1:06:07 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks - Coming Into Focus podcast & Annie Duke on the Capital Allocator's Podcast   Subscribe on:

Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE ???? - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz, & Michael on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert & @Covel And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:04 - Weekly review of returns 10:17 - Moritz: Do you have any new books in the making? 13:07 - Announcement of Jack Schwager joining us on the show in 2 week’s time 13:16 - Moritz: How is your personal trading going? 16:00 - Listener question; Saeed: Which market sectors have the longest trends? 28:50 - Moritz: Do you think Trend Following is over-crowded? 29:49 - Niels: Is Trend Following’s mediocre performance over the last 10 years a new normal or an anomaly? 30:38 - Niels: What are your thoughts on pure Trend Following versus multi-strategy? 33:27 - Niels: How have institutional investors’ attitudes to Trend Following changed over the past 20 years? 38:24 - Niels: What do you say to those who ask, ‘has quantitive easing killed Trend Following’? 41:32 - Niels: What about those who say, ‘fast moving markets have killed Trend Following’? 43:34 - Niels: What do you think about managers overriding their systems during high-volatility periods? 47:45 - Niels: What are your thoughts on AI strategies? 54:10 - Niels: How do you feel about the Trend Following being labelled as ‘crisis alpha’? 1:00:30 - Performance recap 1:01:30 - Recommended podcast listening this week: Robert Rosenberg on Bloomberg’s Business Week podcast, Michael Green on The Investor's Podcast & Naval Ravikant on the Tim Ferris podcast Subscribe on:

"You have this asset class which has been around for hundreds of years, but up until recently I think people haven't fully appreciated the characteristics." - Scott Lynn (Tweet) Scott Lynn is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks. He began his career as a serial entrepreneur, starting tech companies focused on casual gaming, online advertising and financial technology. All along the way he collected art, and after seeing the data available in the last twenty years thanks to the Internet, Scott decided to pursue art as an investment. Art as an asset class has been around for hundreds of years, but only recently has been seen as a viable investment opportunity - made possible by Masterworks. Listen in on today's episode to find out why art is becoming more popular as an asset class among investors, what the key macro drivers are for art, and how Masterworks is making art an accessible investment opportunity. Thanks for listening and please welcome our guest Scott Lynn. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How the art market is different today than it was twenty five years ago How old art is as an asset class How analyzing art is different from analyzing other asset classes When did art as an asset class begin to be studied How art returns are related to the growth of the top 1% "There's so much opportunity in the art market compared to other asset classes." - Scott Lynn (Tweet) How art prices are driven by a decreasing supply of new works How should an art collector think about risk What is a bad environment for art investment How Masterworks invests in art What is a standard commission when buying a piece of art What are the trends among art investors Connect with Masterworks: Visit the Website: Masterworks Call Masterworks: +1 203-518-5172 E-Mail Masterworks: support@masterworks.io Follow Scott Lynn on LinkedIn   "The thing that amazes me about the art market is how it's still very much in its infancy." - Scott Lynn (Tweet) Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Scott You think about the art market, art as an asset class is 1.7 trillion dollars. That's a number that's published by Deloitte and has been (more or less) confirmed by Sotheby's. Last year 68 billion dollars in art sold, so think it as a couple of percent turnover every year. Compare that to venture and private equity, which is 3.5 trillion dollars. There are six thousand firms that operate in venture, private equity, late-stage buyout, whatever, that help people allocate to the asset class. In the art market, there is nobody. Introduction Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders, imaging learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more, welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today’s conversation remember to keep two things in mind: all the discussion that we’ll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance. Also understand that there’s a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies and you need to request and understand the specific risks, from the investment manager, about their products before you make investment decisions. Here’s your host, veteran hedge fund manager Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Niels Hey everyone and welcome to another edition of Top Traders Unplugged where today I'm joined by Scott Lynn, who is the founder and CEO of Masterworks. Today we are really going to talk alternative investments. So, first off, Scott, thanks so much for coming on the podcast. I'm excited about our conversation today because it's a new asset class for me...

This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades. You can find more about Perry’s work on his website here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Robert Carver joins us today to discuss the case for and against the Kelly Criterion, short vs medium vs long-term Trend Following, how closely you should be following different markets, diversification across markets vs across timeframes, how mainstream financial media is driving investors to alternative information sources, the amount of screens you need to trade successfully, and the importance of viewing returns in terms of percentage rather than monetary terms. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance.  Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following?  How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following?  Do you have any advice for trading CFDs? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Today, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s current inflation targets, whether it is ok for systematic managers to turn off their systems during periods of high volatility & uncertainty, the looming questions around Ray Dalio & Bridgewater’s underwhelming performance in 2020, volatility control vs risk control, and why liquidity should be an important deciding factor for investors when choosing a money manager.  Questions we answer this week include: How do you size your positions once maximum portfolio risk is reached?  Do have you have any tips on how to perform volatility-control? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:30 - Macro recap from Niels 04:36 - Weekly review of returns 31:24 - Q1; Daniel: How do you size new positions once your intended maximum portfolio risk is reached? 39:17 - Q2; Dave: Do you have any pointers on how effectively perform volatility targeting? 55:30 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

On today’s show, we discuss Tesla’s threat to the current giants of European car manufacturing, how paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading, the drawbacks of Systematic Investing through a broker’s platform rather than manually operating the system, the benefits of including commodities & currencies in a Trend Following system, and the case against long/flat-only Trend Following on stocks.  Questions we answer this week include: Do you recommend any platforms that you allow you to test your trading system? Do you recommend any ‘off-the-shelf’ Trend Following trading systems? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

We are extremely honoured to welcome Steve Keen, the legendary Australian economist, to our podcast today. Steve is one of the leading critics of mainstream economics, and in our conversation provided a valuable alternative perspective to some of the critical issues facing us today. As you might expect, we did spend time discussing the COVID crisis and the potential policy options for addressing its economic effects, but we also touched on a range of other topics, from climate change to digital currencies, as well as giving Rob the opportunity to ask Steve about Brexit. Topics Discussed in this Episode   COVID crisis as a demand and supply shock Deflation "I have expected deflation right from the very beginning of the '87 crisis, when I first started modelling financial instability, because we have an excessive level of private debt." Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) "One of the problems that we have about understanding this crisis is about understanding money itself. We are continually getting it wrong." The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets “A big difference that can actually have them “succeed” in causing inflation is that instead of a lot of this QE winding up in asset prices and winding up in the financial system, a lot of it is getting injected into the economy in the form of business loans that turn into grants and helicopter money to consumers, extra unemployment benefits...” Fiat and Gesselian currencies Central bank digital currencies "I was hoping that the Russians and the Chinese would get together and form a currency basket system. The one thing I can say in favor of Donald Trump is he has accelerated discussions by central banks around the world about the need for, potentially, a basket of currencies; basically a version of SDRs to be for international trade as well." The Euro "The Euro, itself, has become part of a symbol of Europe, and people like the fact that they can travel between one country and another and not have to change their bank accounts, or their banknotes, and so on. So, even the Italians, who I have said have economically suffered more than anybody...and they have been forced into austerity... Even the Italians are being wedded to it." Climate Change "What is actually causing the increase in GDP is increase in energy. We have a high level of GDP because we use more energy. The correlation coefficient between energy consumption and GDP, at the global level, is .997." Government Debt and Deficits “The idea that government debt is a problem is a problem of understanding what government debt is. We know what the Federal Reserve can do with its keystrokes. If it decides to cancel that debt, it can cancel that debt. It can buy back all the government debt outstanding tomorrow and it could cancel it the day after.” Links Catch up with Steve and learn more about his work: Steve Keen Follow Niels, Moritz, Lyn on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Steve:  I think one of the most sensible ideas about money was Gesell's idea that money should depreciate. He was focusing on money as a means of transactions, a means of payment. If you have a money system where people are focused upon hoarding, what you get is a slowdown in the effectiveness of money as a means of payment.   I think you all know the story of the town of Wörgl, in Austria, during the Great Depression. Are you aware of that?   Moritz:  Yeah, they had their own currency system.   Steve:  Yeah, and that was a Gesellian currency designed to depreciate. The whole idea being that if you didn't spend it, what you had, the value of it declined over time because of a stamp script. That actually meant that town went from Depression levels of unemployment to ...

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Roberto Osorio, Vice President, Trading Systems at DUNN Capital, onto the show. Niels pitches Roberto some of our most fiercely debated topics so far, such as the optimal amount of markets to trade, diversification in all of its forms, the pros & cons of Volatility Targeting, how to accurately recognise model decay, Black Swan strategies and why they maintain popularity regardless of performance, the best look-back period for Trend Following strategies, and if today’s speed of information flow has led to stock market crashes & fast recoveries being the new normal. Check out previous episodes with Niels & Roberto (featuring Alex Greyserman & Katy Kaminski) here, and here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels on Twitter: @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.   Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro3:07 - Macro recap from Niels8:49 - Weekly review of returns9:26 - Interview with Roberto Osorio12:03 - Niels: Can you help settle the debate of how many markets are optimal to trade?19:00 - Niels: What are your thoughts on Volatility-targeting?30:41 - Niels: How do you recognise model decay?36:23 - Niels: What do you think is the best look-back period for Trend Following models?44:40 - Niels: What is your view on the most effective ‘type’ of Trend Following model?50:43 - Niels: What makes DUNN Capital so unique?55:52 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Rob Carver returns to the show this week to discuss Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the potential Bond market bubble that very few are talking about, the sweet-spot for Trend Following fund AUMs, Dave Portnoy’s influence on Robinhood traders, Tom Basso’s recent interview with Meb Faber, and the continual need to improve your successful trading strategies.  Questions we answer this week include: Do you know of any Trend Following funds who use the Black-Litterman model of asset allocation?  Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

We are very pleased to welcome Lyn Alden to the studio today, the founder of Lyn Alden investment strategy. Lyn is from an engineering background, and hence, as you might expect, brings a logical and rigorous approach to thinking about economics and financial markets. In our fascinating conversation Lyn was able to draw on her considerable knowledge and understanding of history to inform us in thinking about today’s problems. Our discussion spanned high level thinking about multi decade trends, but also very granular recommendations for the portfolio of assets you should hold today. Topics Discussed in this Episode   Long run debt cycles Deleveraging and inflation in the 1920’s and 1940’s "By the 1940s the private debt bubble was mostly worked off, but then, of course, we entered the WWII period; we had massive federal deficits as a percentage of GDP. ... In order to fund those deficits, the Federal Reserve had to take over the Treasury because there wasn't enough natural appetite for the public to buy all those treasuries. So, the Federal Reserve did something that was, basically, quantitative easing, even though they didn't call it that back then." The 2008 Great Financial Crisis “This time we have a very high federal debt and very high private debt at the same time. So, back then (1930s) we had one after the other; first, we had a private debt bubble then we had a federal debt bubble. So, they worked them off kind of separately, a decade apart. Whereas, in this time, we had a partial deleveraging ten years ago, but we did not have a deleveraging in the corporate sector. Then, of course, we've had an increase in the federal sector. Basically, we have a larger debt problem to work through...” The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets “A big difference that can actually have them “succeed” in causing inflation is that instead of a lot of this QE winding up in asset prices and winding up in the financial system, a lot of it is getting injected into the economy in the form of business loans that turn into grants and helicopter money to consumers, extra unemployment benefits...” Debt and demographics QE and inflation "You could have mid-single-digit sustained inflation with an occasional spike, especially in a yield curve control environment where they don’t raise rates to stop inflation. But, that could quickly get out of control if the global investors lose confidence in the currencies and bonds." Geopolitics and the possibility of war "You don’t want to rely on masks from China if you’re in a contest with China in a great war struggle. Even if it’s not a hot war if it’s a cold war you still don’t want most of your medicines made by your cold war antagonist." Portfolio inflation hedging Bitcoin “... it seems odd to me not to have, say, 1% in bitcoin because the market cap, right now, fluctuates between one and two hundred billion but gold's market cap is like ten trillion based on estimates for how much gold (above ground gold) exists in the world and what its current price is.” Debt jubilees “ Those supply chains for oil can be disrupted. We saw that happen in Saudi Arabia where they were attacked and they lost energy output. I do think we could see a period where we have more commodity scarcity this decade. I think there’s some of the tail risk to look out for is either certain commodity scarcity or how significantly we could have currency devaluations.” Pension fund investing in a low yield world “… there are a lot of pensions that have to own bonds… We’ve had a forty-year global cycle in lower and lower yields so bonds have had a really great run. But now that bond yields are equal or less than inflation and debt loads are so high that they can’t really raise rates, I do think that there’s a pretty big risk to these institutions of having so much bond exposures.” Links Catch up with Lyn and learn more about her work: Lyn Alden

This week, we discuss Tesla’s meteoric stock price rise and its likely inclusion into the S&P 500, similarities between today’s parabolic moves in the stock market and the famous tech bubble, why the current outlook for markets necessitates a place for investing in Trend Following strategies,  Germany’s move to tax investors on their gold ETF holdings, Volatility-focused trading strategies, and the differences in making adjustments to short term systems vs long term systems.  Questions answered this week include: At what point do you decide that your system is no longer working?  How do you adjust for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

In today’s episode we are joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C.  Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets.  Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation. Topics Discussed in this Episode   • The uniqueness of the 2020 financial crisis “What we did this time that’s unique to all the other ones is that we effectively did a global economic shutdown. That’s never been done before. No one really knows what that means and we’re still all trying to feel around in the dark as to what its implications are.” How the Federal Reserve has been aggressively manipulating the bond markets “Investors have been bailing out of the bond market in a big way. They were selling corporate, they were selling Treasuries, and they were moving themselves into money market funds. Foreign central banks even sold over 150-billion dollars worth of Treasuries as well, too. At the same time that they were doing that, the Federal Reserve stepped in and was, at one point, buying over 100-billion dollars a day of bonds. But it looks like what they’ve been effectively doing, is the words you hear all the time: yield curve control.” The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets "Trump thinks that if you ram the stock market higher it will create confidence, new jobs and GDP. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary thinks that too. Jerome Powell says this: “the free market was going to let these companies go out of business, but we prevented it and we saved those jobs.” Maybe the free market had a good reason to send those companies out of business?" The current retail stock market ‘mania’ The only group who can bring bond markets down: The Bond Market Vigilantes "There’s one group larger than the Fed, and that is what Ed Yardeni coined forty years ago - The Bond Market Vigilantes. The collective wisdom of the bond market is larger than the Fed. If you get inflation, and then everybody is of the perception that inflation is here, eroding the value of fixed-income investments, then they become of one mind, and that one mind is to sell." The scale and risk of the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and money printing “If the Treasury’s projections and the Fed’s projections are correct, between March and August they are going to, in either a combination of either print or borrow the equivalent of four years of tax receipts in five months. So, they will have created four years of tax receipts in five months to go towards trying to battle the contraction in the economy and the pandemic.” Implications of the recent, wild price swings in Oil “I think $40 is going to be a very tough problem for the oil industry to maintain and you’re probably going to see more cutbacks in production, maybe some bankruptcies. It’s probably going to put a floor on this market right now, assuming that the demand situation is somewhat stabilised and that we don’t have another violent downturn in the economy one more time.” How the Corona Virus may have accelerated trends that were already beginning to occur “So, we will create new jobs. We just don’t know what they are. The old jobs will go first, the new jobs will come later, the old jobs we know what they’re going to be that are going to be lost – the driver job. We don’t know what the new industries or new jobs are going to be created becau...

In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts.  Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago. Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting. Topics Discussed in this Episode   The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great Depression “Compression means that we go into a deep recession but we also come out of it and the numbers that we will see coming out of this recession will also be note worthy, and new records for positive increases.” How the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisis Why politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxes “To raise taxes is toxic in terms of your electability. So, it’s easier to have some sort of inflation and blame it on the pandemic or something like that.” How 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemics Why Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recession Why the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numbered “I think, just looking at history, it’s really naïve to think that the U.S. will be the dominant currency forever. So, things change. So, economic tides come in and go out.” Why central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currencies ” I think governments will embrace this technology for another reason and that is tax. So, right now with the value-added taxes, especially in Europe, there are just so many incentives to basically transact in cash to avoid the VAT” Technology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen before “I believe that technology will deliver a surge, in particular, to emerging markets; will spill over to the developed markets; the increased productivity will be striking. We will not be working 40 hour weeks in the future. There will be a lot more leisure time. There will be less income inequality as we’ve got equality of opportunity.” Cam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the future Why peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward Links Catch up with Campbell and learn more about his work: Campbell R. Harvey, Duke University Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Subscribe to the podcast to get access to all of our transcripts as eBook downloads! Campbell I see the possibility that technology is going to enable a massive surge of human capital and this surge is so large that there is no historical comparison. What I mean by that is that we’ve got 1.7 billion people in the world that are unbanked. They have no access to the world of the internet, in terms of eCommerce and things like that, that’s going to change. Niels For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been a chance to refine my own investment framework through a series of conversations with extraordinary investors in every corner of the world. In this series, I along with my co-hosts, Robert Carver and Moritz Seibert, want to continue our education by digging deeper into the minds of some of the thought leaders when it comes to how the world economy and global markets really work to try and learn how they think. We want to understand the experiences that have shaped them, the processes they follow, and the historical events that have influenced them. We also want to ask questions outside our normal rules-based playground.

In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea.  Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

In this special anniversary edition of the Systematic Investor podcast, Jerry Parker joins us on the show to discuss why removing as many filters as possible may be beneficial to your trading system, why we could actually be living in the most ‘certain’ times in history, the importance of laser-like focus and unemotional trading during the best & worst periods, Jerry’s incredible story of despair to eventual victory as a Trading Turtle under Richard Dennis, the fallacy of aiming for the ‘perfect’ system,  Cliff Asness’s quotes on Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting With Models podcast, the deep history of Trend Following, and a lot more! Thanks to Seth for submitting your voicemail to the show.  If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green, of Logica Capital advisors. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects. Topics Discussed in this Episode   Passive investing ETFs and target date funds Intergenerational inequality “(The) growth of passive is now basically built into the system. From a regulatory framework, all the new money that comes into the U.S Savings and Investment accounts (primarily in the form of 401Ks and IRAs), are coming in passive vehicles.” Real interest rates over history Mean reversion and momentum Negative interest rates “I think negative interest rates are absurd and that they're a view that I articulated back in 2015 and is now, I think, increasingly accepted that they're ultimately harmful to the banking system. They create a tax on the banking system.” Leverage: recourse vs no recourse (limited liability) “I think another component that people generally under-appreciate is that while we all complain about leverage and we complain about the high levels of debt, the flavor-de-jour of how we solve this is something like risk parity which says, "OK, let's lever our portfolio 10X in the fixed income space, and let's add..." MMT “MMT is right but it offers almost no prescriptions for how that money should be spent. So, by handing it over to the politicians, we're at least in a situation where you could see outcomes of how that money gets spent that we have never predicted.” Yield enhancement strategies Links Catch up with Michael and learn more about his work: Logica Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Subscribe to the podcast to get access to all of our transcripts as eBook downloads! Michael If I’m running a discretionary program and that’s going into some form of a structured product (and this doesn’t happen for precisely this reason), if I choose to do something that is different than I would have done historically, then the results of that product could be very different than I have advertised them for and I’d become liable. So, I’m forced into a quantitative system. That's actually part of the reason why I partnered with Wayne is that I realized that until the rules change there is, actually, no substitute to a documented quantitative process. Niels For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been a chance to refine my own investment framework through a series of conversations with extraordinary investors in every corner of the world. In this series, I along with my co-hosts, Robert Carver and Moritz Seibert, want to continue our education by digging deeper into the minds of some of the thought leaders when it comes to how the world economy and global markets really work to try and learn how they think. We want to understand the experiences that have shaped them, the processes they follow, and the historical events that have influenced them. We also want to ask questions outside our normal rules-based playground. We're not looking for trade ideas or random guesses about an unknown future but rather knowledge accumulated over the course of decades in the markets to try to make us better-informed investors and we want to share those conversations with you. Our Guest today is one of few real independent thinkers and a student of markets and market structure and, perhaps, the leading mind when it comes to how the growth of passive investing is changing markets in a way that few people realize. So,

In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns.  We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity?  Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Our guest today is Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill intelligence. One of the major themes of our podcast series so far has been the reactions of central banks to the global pandemic, and it’s likely effects on inflation and asset prices. As a former Fed insider, with nine years of experience as an advisor to the president of the Dallas Fed, Danielle is uniquely positioned to give us her take on the action taken by central banks so far, and what their next move is likely to be. However, our conversation was not just about the Fed, as it covered many other interesting topics including the curious timing of the US-China trade talks and when we first learned about COVID in the autumn of 2019 (one for conspiracy theorists!). Topics Discussed in this Episode COVID-19 QE and the transmission mechanism China “The number of people moving from Chinese Suburbs, urbanization if you will, a massive, massive secular trend, was coming to an end… You pile the trade war into this preexisting dynamic, in 2019, and you end up with the global economy headed for recession. At the same time, you had leverage, of course, in a very, very bad place.” US bond market Monetary policy rules and the choice of inflation measure Democracy: Revolution or direct democracy? “Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke were fighting, and fighting, and fighting for this two percent target for years but it wasn’t until Alan Greenspan left the Fed that they were able to actually implement it.” China-US trade Inequality “The Fed is doing a lot for the top 1%. The Fed is helping private equity not get buried in some very bad investments that they have made. They’re helping the wealthy stay wealthier.” Negative interest rates “The one thing that I will give J. Powell credit for is holding the line on negative interest rates. It’s clear from listening to everybody on the committee and every district president that there is unity and a cohesive solid front against negative interest rates” Bitcoin and ‘Fedcoin’ Links Catch up with Danielle and learn more about her work: Quill Intelligence Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Subscribe to the podcast to get access to all of our transcripts as eBook downloads! Niels Do they really believe that they’re doing the right thing or is it just…? Danielle They really. No, no, they really do. There are occasional voices of reason. J. Powell was one of them. He read my markets briefings that got under the skin of Bill Dudley and Timothy Geithner. They hated the work that I did for Fischer all those years ago but Powell didn’t, he appreciated it. In October 2012 he’d only been on the Federal Reserve Board for two or three months, at that point. It was one of his first FOMC meetings and he said that the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing was inflating a duration bubble across the entire credit spectrum, and that quantitative easing could become habit-forming, and that if and when the time came to try and extricate themselves and normalize interest rates he was in the driver’s seat trying to do that and to shrink the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, that it could be problematic. Well, he discovered what problematic was when the U.S. high yield bond market shut down for a record forty-one days between November the 14th on, which caused all the world regulators, the VIS, everybody collateral backing, all of these ETFs were trading ‘by appointment only’ spreads gapped out, redemptions went through the roof and then we had the Powell Pivot. So, he understood what the Fed was creating – the monster that the Fed was creating, when he was a rookie at the Fed, back in 2012. For me, the best part of my podcast journey has been a chance to refine my own investment framework through a series of conversations with extraordinary investors in every corner of ...

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many? Check out Mark’s blog here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of the Bear Traps report, and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla. Topics Discussed in this Episode Risk Indicators Unemployment Modern Monetary Theory US Dollar "At the end of the day, so the dollar ripped 82 to 104 and that moved crushed middle American jobs and really, I think it partially cost Hillary Clinton the election… I think the Trump camp has learned that you really can't have a runaway dollar heading towards an election. You really want that dollar down and that will help whatever is left of middle America. Inequality Inflation “The inflation camp, every one of them is pegging it on twelve to eighteen months from now. Whereas, the deflation camp is pretty high conviction that we're going to have a problem near-term. ” Gold and Silver 2020 Election "I just don't think that the White House really wants to have a problem with China in the last two, three months before the election." Tesla " Tesla is at close to three hundred (billion), so Tesla would come in at anywhere between twelve and ten in terms of the S&P 500. So it would come in, basically, in the top twelve companies which has never happened before." Warren Buffet  Fed balance sheet  Links Catch up with Larry McDonald and learn more about his work: The Bear Traps Report Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on:

Todays’ guest is Erik Townsend, host of the Macro voices podcast. Erik has an unusual background, as he had a very successful career as a technology entrepreneur before turning his hand to commodity trading. His background gives him a different perspective to many in the financial world, as we discovered in our conversation. Our discussion explored the possible consequences of the action taken by central banks in the last and current crisis; including rampant inflation, social unrest, and the overthrow of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. As Erik said towards the end of our conversation “Put your seatbelt on, there could be some rough turbulence ahead”! Topics Discussed in this Episode MMT Inflation outlook & inflation hedging QE "Most of that money that was conjured out of thin air by central banks didn't go to Main Street to provide more money in the pocket of the average consumer, it went to put more money in the pocket of the average investment banker to buy more assets." China & Russia “If you are China and Russia, first of all, you don't care about votes because you rule through fear and intimidation, not through democracy. What you care about is shifting power from the west back to the east.” Civil unrest & revolution "The current system, which is more cronyism than capitalism, the people of the world are pissed off. They're sick of it. I think that what we'll see over the next ten years is a major change." Digital global reserve currency " I think that we'll eventually see the emergence of a digital currency that really gives the U.S. dollar a run for its money for the title of Global Reserve Currency. That's going to be what changes the Fed's ability to get away with what it has been doing." Coronavirus Links Catch up with Erik Townsend and learn more about his work: MacroVoices Book: Beyond Blockchain Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Subscribe to the podcast to get access to all of our transcripts as eBook downloads! Erik I published a book in 2018 predicting that the eventual replacement for the U.S. dollar would be a digital currency and I don't think it's cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. I think the cats out of the bag that digital currency is going to be the way of the future. The question is going to be what country or block of countries come up with the digital reserve currency that really provides a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar? How does that event come about? It's not something that happens next week or next month. In the next decade, I think that we'll eventually see the emergence of a digital currency that really gives the U.S. dollar a run for its money for the title of Global Reserve Currency. That's going to be what changes the Fed's ability to get away with what it has been doing. Introduction For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been a chance to refine my own investment framework through a series of conversations with extraordinary investors in every corner of the world. In this series, I along with my co-hosts Robert Carver and Moritz Seibert, want to continue our education by digging deeper into the minds of some of the thought leaders when it comes to how the world economy and global markets really work to try and learn how they think. We want to understand the experiences that have shaped them, the processes they follow, and the historical events that have influenced them. We also want to ask questions outside our normal rules-based playground. We’re not looking for trade ideas or random guesses about an unknown future but rather knowledge accumulated over the course of decades in the markets to try and make us better-informed investors and we want to share those conversations with you. Our guest today is a global macro investor who, like us, talks to some of the sharpest minds in the financial world...

Today, Robert Carver joins us to discuss JP Morgan’s comments on markets being fabricated by central bank liquidity, Tesla’s incredible swings in market cap, thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase, the point at which diversification in a portfolio becomes dilution, and the benefits of diversifying among different Trend Following managers. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:45 - Check out the first 2 recent episodes of our Global Macro series 1:58 - Macro recap from Niels 3:18 - Weekly review of returns 11:44 - Thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase of the Dominion Energy’s natural gas pipelines & current Apple position 14:59 - Discussion on Mark Zepczynski’s article on being over-diversified 31:05 - Thoughts on AQR article regarding Tail Risk hedging 34:48 - Performance recap 35:41 - Check out Rob Carver’s recent article on his blog   Subscribe on:

Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of BuffetsBooks.com and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin. Topics Discussed in this Episode Value Investing The correct discounting of future cash flows Demographic changes The debt cycle QE "I operate off this really fundamental thesis of manipulation: anytime somebody steps into a freely functioning system, like nature, for example, when man steps into nature and they start manipulating that, there is always a consequence of some sort that has to balance that manipulation out." Berkshire Hathaway The fundamental case for huge returns on Bitcoin “To be quite honest with you I don't know how anything is going to outperform bitcoin based on my opinions of how I think it's going to perform in the coming year and a half. I don't know how anything can outperform that simply because the market cap is so low.” Yield curve control "The fixed income market is completely manipulated." The failure of the dollar " Every single thing on the planet has to be sold in order to come up with dollars to adjudicate the differences of the trades and the differences of opinions and the impairment that happened on the balance sheets." The connection between Bonds & Bitcoin prices Why countries should be doing their best to accumulate Bitcoin Links Catch up with Preston Pysh and learn more about his work: The Investors Podcast We Study Billionaires Buffett's Books Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Subscribe to the podcast to get access to all of our transcripts as eBook downloads! Preston I wouldn't say that the value investing is dead, by any shape of the imagination. I think what you have happening is that because they're not supplying so much liquidity into the system, you have a different incentive structure that now exists than you used to have when it was just free and open markets and we would let businesses actually fail which doesn't seem to be a thing anymore. So, with that new structure you're now getting all this incentive to allocate capital into non-tangible assets (really strong, powerful non-tangible assets, technology-based assets). Think about, like, Google for example. They don't have the CapEx that your traditional brick and mortar type businesses have - they're global. If there are inflationary impacts they can just immediately adjust. It's dynamically adjusting the bidding of the prices for their ad revenue. All of those things; the technology piece is just crazy in this. So, there are a lot of things that are popping out of this manipulation. Introduction: For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been a chance to refine my own investment framework through a series of conversations with extraordinary investors in every corner of the world. In this series, I, along with my co-hosts Robert Carver and Mort Seibert, want to continue our education by digging deeper into the minds of some of the thought leaders when it comes to how the world economy and global markets really work to try and learn how they think. We want to understand the experiences that have shaped them, the processes they follow, and the historical events that have influenced them.

Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages. Topics Discussed in this Episode The consistency of the US dollar cycle The COVID related March funding squeeze US current and capital account deficit Why Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forward The many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection point Unemployment "The U.S. just hit post Second World War highs (for unemployment), and if you don’t, post Great Depression highs. The point is that we are starting in an economic hole which is, arguably, much, much deeper than many of our peers. And that is in virtue of the fact that we have a super flexible labor market" Why recent Federal Reserve liquidity injections into the market may not have been part of Quantitive Easing (QE), which could still be yet to come “As the economy starts to recover, that’s when we will come out with old fashioned QE." I’m like, “Jesus, what’s that? Is that another 80 billion a month, trillion a year?” And the answer is, “Almost certainly.” Yield curve control The independence of the Fed The case for Systematic Trend Following commodity funds Why Bitcoin may be a dangerous long-term investment "(That) is the day that you are presented with the option of handing your bitcoin over in the same way that you did with gold in the ‘30s or trying to keep hold of it and if you’re caught ending up in a big dark hole with a bloke called Bubba who calls you Shirley" Financial repression Why government bond yields may struggle to rise again The history of global pandemics "There was this little bloke called Martin Luther who hung around as all the Catholic priests fled out to their country properties when we had the black death, who stayed and helped. Guess what? That was the cycle high of Catholicism. That was a relatively big turning point in History. Pandemics kind of do that" Commodity markets The case for Silver against the US dollar How market cycles tend to repeat themselves The importance of central bank policies when trying to gauge markets Links Catch up with Julian Brigden and learn more about his macroeconomic research firm, MI2Partners Julian Brigden MI2Partners Follow Niels, Moritz, & Rob on Twitter: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Moritz Seibert Rob Carver Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Subscribe to the podcast to get access to all of our transcripts as eBook downloads! Julian Here's my big problem: once, when I worked at Medley Advisors, we were on a phone call with a Senator from Texas and it was around the time of Enron’s collapse. We were talking about executives at Enron and what was going to happen. My boss was talking away and we were listening in and this Senator just stopped, at one point, and said, “You don’t understand. I don’t care what happens to Skilling and all these boys I just want them to end up in a big dark hole with a boy called Bubba who calls them Shirley.” At that point, it just underlined one thing to me and that is the ultimate power of government to dictate your behavior because I’ve loved saying to people in the bitcoin space, “Look, I think it’s a great trade. You can trade this thing. It’s a high beta (if you want to store to value, precious metal, whatever), but the day that it ever becomes a big enough thing that it challenges, the ability of government to control their own currency is the day that you are presented with the option of handing your bitcoin over i...

On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert, And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - Global macro review 2:42 - Weekly review of returns 5:15 - How lofty expectations are driving stock market prices 8:25 - What bond markets are telling us about the long prospects for equities 13:13 - Why we may be heading for an inflationary environment 19:05 - How CTA positioning is beginning to swing to the long side of equities 21:20  - Article on downside protection by Mark Zepczynski 28:29  - Article on high CTA returns dispersion by Mark Zepczynski 30:23 - Unveiling of guests, & more info, about our upcoming mini-series 44:47 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Are US Treasuries as safe as we really think? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Meb Faber on why investors are underinvested in Trend Following. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How to allocate a portfolio, accounting for market correlations? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

This week, we give our thoughts on the inaccuracies of CTA replicator models, static risk versus dynamic risk, ways to approach variable position sizing, the power of a system being ‘good enough’, Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your systems, and the recent accusation that CTAs are driving the stock market upward.  Questions answered this week include: What elements of my trading system should I look to expand, if it’s going well?  Can I diversify using stock sectors only?  What are your thoughts on Volatility Targeting? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert, And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:16 - Global macro review 4:04 - Weekly review of returns 7:41 - The inaccuracies of typical CTA replicator models 22:28 - Jim Simons quotes on overriding trading models 24:34 - Question One; Will: So far, my trading system is successful, and I am looking to expand it.  Should I expand it to include an additional look-back period, market(s), or trading strategy?  Could you recommend any reliable data sources? 31:57 - Question Two; Abishek: Can I diversify using different stock sectors only? 35:28 - Question Three; Noah: What are your views on Volatility Targeting? 47:57 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Combining fundamental macro with price data. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How to educate financial advisors about Trend Following strategies. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

The differences between changes leading to improvement & changes leading to inconsistency. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

What level of Leverage should you use? IT'S TRUE

Jim O’Shaughnessy’s paper from 1987 confirms our thesis. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

In today’s episode, we discuss David Harding's interview from 2013 with the SEC Historical Society, possible mistakes to avoid in Systematic Investing, if there are any differences between market confidence and the strength of a Trend, thoughts on Excel vs Python, and the importance of preserving capital during bad periods.  We also answer your questions, including: Does the rise of Volatility trading have any effect on the effectiveness of Trend Following strategies?  How is trend strength calculated? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert, And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:27 - Weekly review of returns 7:38 - David Harding interview with the SEC 14:44 - Richard Dennis quotes 15:57 - Hedge Nordic magazine article featuring Niels & Rob Carver 18:44 - Question One; Brian: Does the rise of Volatility Trading affect Trend Following strategies? 33:48 - Question Two; Brian: How is Trend Strength calculated? 41:37 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Why Trend Following strategies aren’t perfect. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

What would the ‘perfect portfolio’ look like? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How & where to trade Interest Rates. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

What defines a Trend Following trader? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the possible effects of recent bans on short selling, Howard Mark’s latest memo on the recent rally in asset prices, the Wirecard debacle of losing $1.9billion, Tesla’s ascension to having the largest market cap of all car manufacturers in the world, the benefits of Trend Following in a diversified portfolio, the power of non-correlated strategies combined, and the secret sauce of Trend Following.  Questions we answer include: How do Central Bank policies affect Trend Following strategies? Are some markets more prone to trends than others? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Why the term ‘Managed Futures’ may be misleading. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Should you treat some markets differently? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How much does luck play a part in short-term results? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Why aiming for a balance of longs & shorts in your portfolio may be beneficial. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Which month of futures contracts should you trade? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

At what point does a drawdown become too much, before action has to be taken? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Robert Carver joins us back on the show to discuss why simulating ‘noisy’ data in your backtest can add to robustness, how similar strategies can still result in widely varying returns, how to choose the right look-back period, trading continuous vs binary systems, and how much automation should be used when running a system. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive,  @MoritzSeibert, and @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.   Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro1:06 - Global Macro Discussion4:24 - Macro recap from Niels6:02 - Weekly review of returns13:57 - Choosing the right look-back period/time-frame24:54 - Adding noise to your backtest30:54 - Using capital more efficiently42:06 - Binary vs continuous systems57:32 - How automated should your system be?1:06:36 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Which timeframe holds the most influence on markets? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Dealing with correlations on different asset classes. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Bill Eckhardt’s comments on adding discretion to Systematic Trading. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Do losers really average losers? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Today we discuss the disconnect between stock market prices & their expected returns based on economic data,  why current p&l may not reflect the quality of your positions, and the potential role of central banks in the future.  Questions we answer include: How do you reduce futures rollover costs?  How often should a Trend Follower look at their portfolio? Documentaries mentioned: The Fourth Turning Explained and Prince of the Yen If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Can you really be hedged from 2-3pm? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Chris Cole on Volatility... from a statistic to a tradable asset. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Is Trend Following becoming too crowded? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Thoughts on AI trading systems, and how they handled the crash of 2020. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

A dive into Volatility Scaling as part of your Risk Management framework. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Jerry Parker rejoins us today to discuss how single stocks behave differently to indexes, knowing when to ignore your backtests, multi-strategy CTAs vs trend following CTAs, how to make 3000% in a month, why CTAs should be considered the ‘perfect portfolio’ rather than ‘crisis alpha’, and how luck plays a part in past returns.  Questions we answer include: What is the shortest timeframe you look at?  What positions are you mainly in at the moment? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro0:51 - Macro recap from Niels3:13 - Weekly review of returns51:23 - Question 1; Brian: What are the main positions that you are in at the moment?53:56 - Questions 2; Daniel: Does it matter how something has made a breakout?57:50 - Questions 3, 4 & 5; James: What is the shortest timeframe you look at? Can Jerry share how his equity portfolio has faired during the Covid-19 crisis?  How should you space apart chosen look-back periods?1:18:30 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

How to know when you should modify your system or take discretionary decisions. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How should you think about market correlations when designing your investment strategy. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

An explanation of why you may trade some markets differently, rather than treat all signals the same. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

A look into strategies that worked during the recent market turmoil. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

We’re joined by special guest, Rufus Rankin of Ampersand Investment Management, to discuss Trend Following ETFs, the definition of a truly diversified portfolio, flat-fees versus performance-based fees,  how to choose between different managers, learning from Q1 2020, predicting CTA returns, and the recent public spat between Cliff Asness & Nassim Taleb. Questions we answer include: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in client interest after this year’s stock market crash? What non-USA or Europe markets are CTAs currently interested in? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro1:26 - Macro recap from Niels4:06 - Weekly review of returns7:20 - Niels: How what was your journey into this industry?8:57 - Niels: How did you end up allocating capital to CTAs?10:05 - Niels: Do you view Trend Following as a philosophy?12:50 - Niels: What are your thoughts about truly diversified portfolios?17:28 - Moritz; If we can’t forecast CTA returns, do you think we should allocate capital to as many CTAs as possible?20:02 - Niels: What percent of a whole portfolio would you recommend to Trend Following, and what would investors be comfortable with?19:02 - Moritz; Do you only allocate to Trend Following CTAs?22:41 - Moritz; Do you consider yourselves to be a ‘fund of funds’?23:11 - Moritz; How do you handle client pressure surrounding double-layering of fees?24:17 - Niels: Who do you think drives the demand for flat-fees, rather than performance-based fees?26:03 - Niels: What do you think of cheap Trend Following replication products versus full-cost, long-established, Trend Following funds?30:16 - Moritz: Do you still think CTAs are worth their performance fees?32:30 - Niels: How do you choose between different managers?35:19 - Moritz: When do you stop adding CTAs to your portfolio, for diversification?37:15 - Moritz: How do you gain exposure to your chosen CTAs?38:44 - Niels: How has 2020 been for you so far?40:09 - Niels: What are some of the things you learned from Q1 2020?42:52 - Moritz: How has machine learning added value during Q1 2020?44:41 - Question 1; Michael: Have you ever considered creating a Trend Following ETF?48:49 - Niels: Would Trend Following ETFs be required to disclose the rules of the strategies?44:41 - Questions 2&3; Brian: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in investor interest, post the 2020 market crash? What non-USA or EU markets are CTAs currently interested in?53:31 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Is there an optimal number of markets to trade? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Rob Carver describes diversification, portfolio construction, & correlations. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Trend Following during a Time of Crisis. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Convexity, Crisis Alpha, Smart Beta, and Implied Volatility…what does it all mean? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How much AUM is really in Trend Following & who are the players? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Robert Carver joins us to discuss the huge outperformance year-to-date of systematic funds vs discretionary funds, negative prices & their effects on market participants, systematising volatility strategies, whether there is a Holy Grail for eliminating risk completely, Newfound Research’s article on Options Straddles & Trend Following, and where we currently see the strongest trends in our portfolios. Article mentioned: Straddles & Trend Following by Newfound Research If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert and @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro1:32 - Macro recap from Niels4:15 - Weekly review of returns1:07:37 - Question 1; Brian: Where do you see the strongest trends in your portfolio?1:08:34 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

CTAs have found that conveying the facts may not be as enticing as telling a good story. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

The eery accuracy of the infamous 1920s book, which still holds true today.  Maybe markets really haven’t changed that much? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Why CTA & S&P500 returns are often wrongly compared. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

The ‘mother of all biases’. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Why Volatility differs from Risk, and how it may even be considered your friend. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

We’re joined today by special guest Nick Leeson, who is famous for the collapse of Barings Bank, one the oldest banks in the world at the time, to discuss liquidity risk in the markets, dealing with stress in extraordinary situations, the benefits of asking yourself the difficult questions, problems when interpreting vast amounts of data, what Nick looks for when investing today, the importance of communicating your feelings, and lots more. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Nick on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert and @TheNickLeeson And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro1:43 - Macro recap from Niels3:16 - Weekly review of returns5:18 - Niels: What key decisions have shaped your life so far?7:59 - Niels: Can you describe the period between 1992 & 1995?12:44 - Niels: What do you remember about the supposed ‘complex’ products that your were trading?16:19 - Moritz: What was it like trading in Indonesia?20:06 - Moritz: How did you end up being sent abroad to run a business for a bank?26:34 - Moritz: What type of products did you trade at the SIMEX?29:32 - Niels: What are things you look for in a person or organisation you would want to invest with?34:57 - Niels: You advise large businesses, so what are the discussions you are currently having with your clients?49:39 - Moritz:What was your thinking & process while attempting to recover huge losses?55:41 - Niels: Do you talk with your clients about a market's liquidity risk?58:53 - Niels: How has electronic trading made markets more liquid or less liquid?1:02:16 - Niels: Do you see similarities between today’s scandals, and the behavious of past financial scandals?1:05:49 - Moritz: How do you trade today, and what do you think is important is for good trading?1:11:23 - Niels: Describe how you’ve dealt with stress throughout extraordinary situations?1:17:01 - Niels: What are the key things you try to teach your kids, based on your experiences?1:18:57 - Performance recap1:19:57 - Moritz: Tell us about Bull And Bear Cap?1:21:51 - Moritz: Are you continually asked about your history with Barings Bank? Subscribe on:

Why having patience and keeping yourself in the right environment is vital to good investing. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Having conviction is about having a justified belief in your strategy. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Being a good rules-based Investor can be a lonely road, and takes courage to follow. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How to get Clarity and remove the noise of the markets. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How a few simple rules were 97% more accurate than predictions from a variety of experts, in fields like stock picking. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Today, we discuss comments from Warren Buffett in the recent Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, AQR Capital’s recent research finding pure Trend Following strategies to be a better hedge in bear markets than Options strategies, the oil market & the USO ETF, how commodities are great diversifiers which often outperform equities, how to think about market inefficiencies, and why it’s never too late to invest into Trend Following. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Why a winning or losing bet may not mean that it was a good or bad decision. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How a tried & tested strategy can offset the emotional risk when Investing. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Daniel Crosby explains how our bodies shut our brains down & how this causes bad Investing behaviour. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Why we desire a good story & the effect this has on our investments. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Daniel Crosby on Ego, Overconfidence, Emotion & Attention biases. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Today, special guest Nick Radge joins us on the show to discuss similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020, the players behind the recent Oil volatility, the importance of avoiding trading paralysis, how to behave like a successful investor, developing different strategies for different market environments, how Nick fell in love with Trend Following from an early age, and more.  Questions we answer include: How do you incorporate risk management into your strategies?  What trading books do you recommend? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Nick on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert and @TheChartist And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - Macro recap from Niels 4:04 - Weekly review of returns 5:42 - Niels: For some context, tell us about little about your journey in trading so far. 17:58 - Niels: How have you made Trend Following strategies work on stocks? 22:48 - Niels: Why have you chosen to only trade equities on the long-side? 34:21 - Niels: How do you operate your different types of trading systems?  Do you always run them at the same time? 38:37 - Moritz: How do you help your clients today? 48:29 - Moritz: Do your clients ever have enough impact on the market to cause you to adapt your systems? 53:07 - Niels: Do you operate your US stocks portfolio the same as on Australian stocks? 58:47 - Niels: Are the Australian equity markets liquid? 1:00:53 - Niels: Why do you think the recent crash is similar to 1987? 1:16:30 - Question 1: Michael; How do you incorporate Risk Management into your system? 1:24:19 - Questions 2&3: Michael; How should I size positions for trades based on Moving Averages? Can you recommend any Trading books, especially related to Risk Management? 1:30:40 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Why working harder doesn't necessarily mean we’ll achieve better results. IT'S TRUE

Why the rules of good Investing are often a 180 degrees opposite to Human nature. IT'S TRUE

How simple rules eradicated an incurable disease in Africa, and how this can be related to good Investing behaviour. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Daniel Crosby describes how knowledge can sometimes do very little to change Human behaviour, and so may not be as important as people think. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Listener question on how to improve a strategy that seems to be broken.  Should you take an overall approach, or discard any particular markets that haven’t trended for a while? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

We’re joined today by Robert Carver to discuss why classical Trend Following strategies did well in the recent selloff, the risks in OTC trading, why it’s important to diversify across different managers, the varying recent returns of Renaissance Technologies and AHL, and how Robert Carver approaches volatility, scaling & portfolio construction during a crisis. Questions answered this week include: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio? Is pyramiding a bad strategy? Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert and @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:00 - Macro recap from Niels 3:14 - Weekly review of returns 59:25 - Questions 1, 2 & 3; Gary: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio?  Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes?  Is pyramiding a bad strategy? 1:24:56 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Howard Mark’s recent thoughts on the importance of ‘buying low’, and what really constitutes ‘buying low’. IT'S TRUE

Why clients would benefit from lock-up periods, and the difference between evolving your strategies or sticking with it. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Are A.I. programmers unknowingly passing their human biases into the algorithms? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

The benefits of sticking with your system through good & bad times, even in the face of client pressure. Also why Investors benefit from not looking at their portfolios too frequently. IT'S TRUE

In this episode, we discuss how Trend Following strategies are able to cope with the extra volatility around huge world events,  Transtrend’s recent article on responsible investing and why that includes the ability to short a market, the current oil situation, and recent interview appearances by Ray Dalio and Danielle DiMartino Booth.  Questions answered this week include: Can Trend Following do well in a hyper inflationary environment? Have you discovered anything new from the 2020 Crash? Interviews mentioned: Danielle DiMartino Booth on Valuetainment and Ray Dalio on TED If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Bill Dreiss shares his opinion on what it takes to be a successful Trader. IT'S TRUE

Bill Dreiss discusses embracing the uncontrollable nature of Volatility, and explains some of the dangers of what he calls ‘warehousing risk.’ IT'S TRUE

Discussion on some of the reasons why Trend Following works, but why paradoxically, investors are lured toward mean-reversion. IT'S TRUE

Bill Dreiss shares some of his thoughts on Risk Management and Leverage. IT'S TRUE

Bill Dreiss takes us under the hood of his system, and explains why it’s so unique. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Special guest, Harold de Boer of Transtrend, joins us on the show today to discuss why the recent returns disparity among CTAs might be good for the industry, the benefits of investing in more than one Trend Following fund, if the term ‘machine learning’ should be considered as a marketing ploy, what makes a strategy robust, why unsupervised ‘black box’ strategies may be riskier than more traditional strategies, how much the markets have changed over time, some thoughts on volatility targeting, and how CTAs can differentiate themselves in the eyes of investors. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, and @MoritzSeibert. And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:18 - Macro recap from Niels 3:14 - Weekly review of returns 6:56 - Niels: What do you make of the huge returns dispersion of CTAs during the recent market crash? 14:14 - Niels: What causes managers to have similar results? 16:42 - Moritz: Is the adoption of Machine Learning & AI more than just a marketing ploy? 25:58 - Niels: How CTAs differentiate themselves from eachother, in the eyes of investors? 28:57 - Niel: Why are investors usually least invested in Trend Following strategies around the time when they need it most? 30:00 - Moritz: What is the Transtrend story? 33:14 - Moritz: How do you use synthetic markets? 35:08 - Niels; Why have you decided to lower the amount of markets you trade? 38:36 - Niels; How do you avoid taking on too much counter party risk? 45:49 - Moritz: How do you approach market correlations? 49:53 - Moritz: As a liquidity provider, what happens when orders aren’t filled? 52:55 - Moritz: Do you have any concerns, as a liquidity provider? 55:43 - Niels: Who do you think market regulators need to take a look at? 59:01 - Moritz: Would you like it if markets were only open for a short amount of time per day? 1:02:26 - Moritz: Do you believe that trading commodities hurt thier producers in any way? 1:12:06 - Niels: Have markets changed? 1:13:36 - Niels: How do CTAs avoid client redemptions during a crisis, purely because they’re the only liquids funds left? 1:16:25 - Niels: What do you think is important when it comes to robustness? 1:18:56 - Moritz: What’s your view on volatility targeting? 1:22:18 - Niels: What are your thoughts on the belief that Trend Following is overcrowded? 1:24:56 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

We explain why Trend Following will continue to perform over time. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

How markets drive performance more so than skill, and why you need to trade longer-term. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Bill Dreiss talks about his interest in Elliot Wave analysis & the Fractal nature of markets, and how he successfully have used this approach since the 1970s. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

We go down memory lane and discuss our worst trades, and what we learned from them. IT'S TRUE

We discuss when a Trend Follower would be neither Long nor Short. IT'S TRUE

Today, we discuss the benefits of focusing on highly liquid markets, why Trend Following strategies are usually less risky & volatile in any market environment,  how simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas, whether there’s a place for discretion in trading systems, why a manager’s true aims may not be what you were are expecting, and how emotional intelligence disappears during times of stress.  Questions we answer include: Should I have fewer positions, and risk more per trade? How do you deal with a market’s sudden loss of liquidity? How does open equity affect upcoming position sizes? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Is increasing or reducing an existing position during a trade, something you should do? IT'S TRUE

What is the perfect allocation percentage to Trend Following, and other assets, in a diversified portfolio? IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

JP Morgan blames CTA strategies for causing large market selloffs. We give our view! IT'S TRUE

Can you really figure out the markets by using ‘Big Data’ and ‘AI’? IT'S TRUE

How you deal with clients during drawdowns and how you manage expectations can make or break your business. IT'S TRUE

This week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show to discuss: the importance of being able to trade short positions, how the best Trend Following strategies have proven their worth in this current environment, why Trend Following can be regarded as a Contrarian Strategy, whether or not ETFs are safe investments, when being 1st place can be as detrimental as coming last, why the most uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable, why you can’t time entries into a Trend Following fund, how too much AUM can hinder returns, and why there is so much returns dispersion among CTAs today. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, and @MoritzSeibert. And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Macro recap from Niels 3:12 - Weekly review of returns 6:51 - Niels: How did you get to where you are today? 8:00 - Niels: What persuaded you to embrace Trend Following? 11:48 - Moritz: Do you believe Trend Following works because it’s difficult to do? 17:05 - Niels: What do you think it takes nowadays to be a successful investor? 21:38 - Niels: Do you think the speed of the current meltdown is surprising? 30:17 - Moritz: Is the Trend Following space overcrowded, and are its results decaying? 48:31 - Niels: What do you think of Trend Following on individual stocks? 52:42 - Niels: Are concerned about the stability of ETFs? 56:09 - Moritz: Do you have any concerns about the money passively allocated to ETFs? 58:30 - Moritz: Did you imply Trend Following on individual stocks isn’t worth it, after fees? 1:02:51 - Niels: Can you explain your ‘3 Narratives’, starting with ‘The Experiment’? 1:09:45 - Niels: Tell us about the next narrative, ‘The Crazy Gym’? 1:13:58  - Niels: What about the 3rd narrative, ‘Michelle & her 2 advisors’? 1:18:21  - Eric: Moritz, would you like to talk about recent trades in the energy sector? 1:29:50 - Performance recap 1:31:56 - Niels: Eric is there anything else you would like to bring up in closing?   Subscribe on:

Discussion on whether or not to trade Synthetic Instruments. IT'S TRUE

Discussion a recent Barron’s article which says that the 200-Day Moving Average no longer works - perhaps Barron's have changed their mind after March 2020? IT'S TRUE

We discuss The Curious Investor podcast episode on Systematic vs Discretionary Investing. IT'S TRUE

“Experts” claim that the character of the markets has changed in recent years. We discuss comments from David Harding, Stanley Druckenmiller & Cliff Asness, relating to Trend Following. IT'S TRUE

Today we discuss a listener question, regarding the usual time it takes before being able to follow a Trading System religiously. IT'S TRUE

We’re joined on the show today by special guest Robert Carver, to discuss another historically volatile week in the markets, the differences between today’s bear market and 2008, how Robert defines portfolio diversification, how many markets a profitable Trend Following system should trade, the different types of strategies that Robert currently uses, the amount of truly uncorrelated assets available, and volatility scaling as a part of risk management.  Questions answered this week include: What causes you to modify your system over time, and how do you go about this?  What have you learnt from trading through previous crisis periods?  What are your thoughts on AI technology? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Rob on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert, and @InvestingIdiocy And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:09 - Macro recap from Niels 4:03 - Weekly review of returns 8:09 - Niels: How have you dealt with the recent volatility? 19:44 - Niels: What does diversification mean to you? 28:35 - Niels: How many markets can be considered too many for a diversified Trend Following system to trade? 41:10 - Moritz: What type of different strategies do you currently trade? 46:27 - Niels: What has helped you to do well during recently, especially during the recent market turmoil? 51:17 - Niels: Why have you chosen to trade different markets differently, rather than treating all markets the same? 1:03:18 - Seth; Question 1: How do you incorporate correlations into building a Trend Following program? 1:09:40 - Moritz; Question 2: What causes you modify your system over time, and how do you go about this? 1:14:37 - Niels: What, in your opinion, is a good risk management framework?  What have you learnt from trading previous crisis periods? 1:22:09 - Niels: What are your thoughts on AI technology? 1:27:20 - Moritz: What are your thoughts on the possibility of Trend Following becoming too crowded? 1:36:12 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

Today we discuss a question from the audience about what goes on in the life of a CTA. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

The likeliness to curve fit data from backtests, and get excited about numbers which may not materialise. IT'S TRUE

When Howard Marks speaks, we should all pay attention. And today's topic about focusing on the Risk rather than the Upside in your portfolio...is just up our street! IT'S TRUE

We discuss why we believe that Trend Following could rightly be viewed as the Perfect Portfolio, and sometimes the Perfect Hedge. IT'S TRUE

Why do equity investors aim to be average? And how to aim for more. IT'S TRUE

This week, we discuss the potential benefits of investing in more than one systematic fund, Tom Basso’s research finding that Trend Following returns increase as market volatility increases, the process behind Moritz’s discretionary trade last week, sizing positions according to volatility, the historic rally in government bonds, and the importance of good risk management. Questions we answer include: What software do you use to manage and monitor your portfolios?  How much importance do you place on pyramiding into & out of positions?  Have you found that some markets trend better than others? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:26 - Macro recap from Niels 3:00 - Weekly review of returns 29:11 - Top Tweets 50:16 - Dante; Question 1: What software do you use to monitor your portfolios? 52:15 - Andrew; Question 2: How much importance do you place on the effect of pyramiding into & out of positions? 59:28 - Mike; Question 3: Do you size positions based on volatility, and how does this affect correlations? 1:04:12 - James; Question 4: Do you believe particular markets ‘trend’ better than others? 1:11:44 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

What is the optimal time frame when analysing a track record & why can seemingly correlated strategies have very different returns? IT'S TRUE

Want to know what the real benefit of Trend Following is, compared to the traditional Buy & Hold method? Find out in today's episode...there may be more benefits than meets the eye at first glance. IT'S TRUE

You may be surprised of the difference between how well Short and Long trades perform...but why it's still important to trade both. IT'S TRUE

End of 2019 wrap up, with thoughts on Bonds, Bitcoin, the decade just gone by, and the connection between Netflix & Dominos Pizza. IT'S TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year! Get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. Follow me at @TopTradersLive And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

After the quickest 10% correction straight from an all-time-high in stock market history last week, we discuss how human emotions & behaviours played their part, the threat of the coronavirus and its effect on world economies, why a week is too short a time to judge if CTAs are providing ‘crisis alpha’, and why short-term systems should have performed really well during the selloff. Questions we cover include: How do you define ‘signal strength’? Do you use stop-losses, and if so, how? Can you apply Trend Following systems to micro futures contracts? If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

In today’s episode, we discuss whether attempting to trade every market at the same time may hinder any conviction necessary for above-average returns, as well as debate the difference between a portfolio with plenty of trades across lots of different markets versus one with less positions among fewer markets.  We also cover the Hedge Fund Journal’s recent interview with Harold De Boer of Transtrend, the amount of truly uncorrelated markets available to trade, how much discretion should be used during the design & implementation of a systematic trading strategy, and if the accusation is true that CTAs are the main catalyst behind price shocks. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Macro recap from Niels 2:33 - Weekly review of returns 6:52 - Top Tweets 47:36 - Michael; Question 1: Who inspired you into Trend Following trading? 59:16 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:12 - Macro recap from Niels 2:59 - Weekly review of returns 5:23 - Top Tweets 34:12 - Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system? 36:57 - Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’? 43:40 - Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business? 53:31 - Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities 57:24 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss how Jerry approached his Tesla trade during last week’s parabolic move up, the value of sleeping well at night in comparison to chasing maximum returns, whether Trend Following models can be successfully tilted toward ESG (Sustainable) Investments, thoughts on Negative & Positive Skew, the perceived drawbacks of CTA diversification when stocks are going up, and we also compare Trend Following on stocks, to a fully diversified, Trend Following system.  Questions we answer this week include: What do you do next when you have a significant amount of new AUM?  Do you have any tips or methods, whether psychologically or built into your models, for handling euphoric gains?  How many markets, and how much allocation to each market, do you recommend when constructing a Trading Universe? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:08 - Macro recap from Niels 1:44 - Weekly review of returns 4:59 - Top Tweets 18:45 - Announcement of special guest Eric Crittenden, from Standpoint Asset Management, joining us on the show in a few weeks 26:21 - Jacob; Question 1: When you have a significant amount of new available equity, what do you do next? 32:57 - James; Question 2: How do you manage a position that makes a Parabolic move, such as Tesla? 41:18 - Matt: Question 3: What methods do you use to handle euphoric gains? 1:01:51 - Camron; Question 4: What is the best way to compile a Trading Universe? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market? 1:04:42 - Sam; Question 5: Are you aware of any Trend Following Traders who tilt towards ESG (Sustainable Investing)? 1:07:23 - Seth; In response to last week’s request to listeners, shares how he thinks TF should be best described as an important part of your portfolio 1:10:30 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

On today’s show, we discuss when having lots of experience can sometimes work against you, why hard and fast rules can be better than making discretionary decisions, the importance of trading in appropriate position sizes, the amount of drawdown that will likely cause you to deviate from your system, the unpopularity of Trend Following strategies, creating an adaptive portfolio that can respond to market conditions, and why Trend Following should play a considerable part in your portfolio.  Questions we answer this week include: Should you use Trend Filters to confirm your entry signals?  Is the 60/40 portfolio usually less volatile than a typical ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio?  Do you recommend adding mean-reversion strategies to your Trend Following systems?  How do you define short, medium and long-term? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:11 - Macro recap from Niels 2:41 - Weekly review of returns 14:14 - Top Tweets 55:44 - Mike; Questions 1: Is Trend Following a Dynamic Call Replication strategy? 1:00:39 - Seth; Question 2: Do you use Trend Filters to confirm the entry signal? 1:04:10 - Michael; Question 3: Is the daily volatility of a 60/40 portfolio less than that of the 'perfect' Trend Following portfolio? 1:08:12 - Brian; Listener comment regarding the best way to explain why Trend Following should play a considerable part in all portfolios. 1:14:33 - Dave; Question 4: When using multiple lookback periods, should risk per trade always stay the same? 1:16:02 - Yohan; Question 5: Do you scale into a trade throughout the day, depending on market liquidity, or just enter the full trade upon getting the signal? 1:18:27 - Drew; Question 6: What does your day-to-day look like? 1:20:43 - Yohan; Question 7: Why not combine mean-reversion strategies with your Trend Following strategies? 1:25:49 - Paul; Question 8: Would testing markets that you don’t plan to trade, give added clarity to your backtests? 1:29:22 - Singh; Question 9: How do you define short, medium and long-term timeframes? 1:34:01 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Today, we discuss how CTAs provide Investors with protection during stock market declines, how the term Crisis Alpha may be linked to reduced allocations to CTAs, the psychology behind managers chasing performance, worthwhile allocation percentages to Trend Following, short-term vs long-term CTA strategies, Trend Following as the perfect portfolio, and Diversification as a way to reduce risk.  Questions answered this week include: What are some of the pros and cons of CFD trading, and do you have any tips for building a portfolio of CFDs? Should instruments that rarely make money be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data? Thank you to Andy for submitting your voicemail to the show.  If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:25 - Macro recap from Niels 2:41 - Weekly review of returns 18:39 - Top Tweets 54:51 - Andy (via TTU VoiceMail); Questions 1/2: What are some pros & cons of CFD trading? Do you have any tips for building a CFD portfolio? 1:02:56 - James; Question 3: Should instruments that rarely ever make money, be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data? 1:14:22 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the reliability of Fundamental Analysis sell rules versus Trend Following sell rules, the so-called ‘Quant winter’ that systematic funds are supposedly in, whether there is a clear definition of Value Investing, the ability of CTAs to offer Investors exposure to less popular markets, the differences between Trend Following and Technical Analysis, and how much of past performance can be considered as a reliable indicator for the future.  Questions we cover include: Do you have to be a coder, or hire one, to be a successful Trend Follower? What do you do when you have more signals than available capital? When adding new securities to your Trading Universe, do you resize current positions to accommodate? Is a stock in motion, more likely to stay in motion? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:47 - Macro recap from Niels 4:19 - Weekly review of returns 18:39 - Top Tweets 55:34 - Keith; Questions 1/2: What is the name of Jerry’s bird? What do you do when you have more signals than capital available?  When adding new markets to a system, do you resize existing trades to accommodate? 1:03:10 - Neil; Question 3: If a stock is moving or flat, is it likely to continue in the same form? 1:09:11 - Mike; Question 4: What are the differences between Trend Followers & Technical Analysts? 1:13:02 - Andrew; Question 5: Is long-only Trading on Forex recommended? 1:16:46 - George; Question 6: Do you have to be a coder (or hire one), to be a successful Trend Follower? 1:27:37 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

Today we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM.  Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance?  Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today?  How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Andreas on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert & @Clenow And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:54 - Niels; Question One: How does one go about choosing parameters for their Trading models?  Question Two: Do you stick with your model, or do you look to recalibrate it over time? 7:37 - Jerry; Question Two: Have you noticed that longer-term systems have always produced better results than shorter-term, even though we may think otherwise?  How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? 13:48 - Moritz; Question One: Would you still go out and start a Trend Following fund today?  If so, how would you go out and raise the initial AUM? 16:25 - Niels; Question Two:  How should CTAs & Trend Followers present themselves?  Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label? 22:32 - Niels; Question Three:  If you could invite 4 people to dinner, from past or present, who would you choose? 22:32 - Niels; Question Four:  Anything you would like to share regarding your latest book? 26:23 - Brian; Question One: Do you think Options strategies distort Trends and the performance of Trend Following strategies? 27:08 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

In the first of a 2-part special with Andreas Clenow, we discuss why combining Models might improve your Risk-Adjusted Returns in the long run, whether all Trend Following signals are more or less the same, reliable ways to measure risk, and some thoughts on Trend Following in the Stock Market.  Questions we attempt to answer this week include: How do you trade mean-reverting strategies? Do you use Volatility-Targeting as part of a Trend Following strategy? Why has Andreas mentioned in the past that Trend Following doesn’t work on stocks? Are there less big Trends nowadays? Do you prefer to use the same parameter combinations across all markets? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Andreas on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert & @Clenow And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:24 - Macro recap from Niels 2:30 - Weekly review of returns 5:36 - Introduction to special guest, Andreas Clenow. Questions for Andreas, to follow. 14:35 - Moritz; Question One: Are you running any non-Trend Following, Systematic strategies? 16:09 - Moritz; Question Two: How do you Trade mean-reverting, negative-skew strategies? 20:41 - Jerry; Question One: Why do you say that Risk Per Trade is an unreliable indicator of risk? 28:00 - Jerry; Question Two: Do you use Vol-Targeting as a part of a Trend Following system? 31:18 - Jerry; Question Three: You have mentioned that Trend Following doesn’t work on stocks, what was the reasoning behind this? 40:59 - Niels; Question One: Do you consider all Trend Following signals as, essentially, the same thing? 44:13 - Niels; Question Two: Has the model featured in your 2011 book continued to do well over the last decade? 50:38 - Moritz; Question Three: How do you decide which markets you want to trade in a diversified Trend Following system, which is more than just stocks-only? 55:36 - Jerry; Question Four: Why not use Trend Following on stocks? 59:53 - Jerry; Question Five: Do you believe there is a lack of big trends in today’s markets? 1:05:31 - Niels; Question Three:  Do you prefer to always keep the same parameter combinations across all markets? 1:09:54 - Niels; Question Four: Would you remove markets from your Trading Universe that consistently lose money, or are you of the thought that you don’t know what the future holds? 1:11:38 - Niels; Question Five: What’s your preferred minimum amount of lookback period for a backtest, and do you weight recent data as more important than previous data? 1:20:47 - Jerry; Question Six:  Would you recommend to CTAs today to use a 40-year sample size for backtesting, or the last 10 or so years because it’s more relevant? 1:17:09 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of  positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk.  Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious?  Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:09 - Macro recap from Niels 14:06 - Weekly review of returns 19:18  - Top tweets 49:01 - Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets? 55:22 - Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes? 58:12 - Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models? 1:06:14 - Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)? 1:12:39 - Performance recap 1:14:16 - Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas Clenow Subscribe on:

In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews.  Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction?  Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:55 - Macro recap from Niels 3:10 - Weekly review of returns 18:41  - Top tweets 43:29 - Question 1: Woody; Is Trend Following another form of predicting price moves? 1:00:18 - Question 2 William; Do you follow the weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report? 1:05:02 - Performance recap 1:08:52 - End of year recap 1:19:32 - Top tweets (cont.) 1:20:59 - Thank you to our listeners in 2019 Subscribe on:

This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness,  why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns.  Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently?  Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator?  How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:37 - Macro recap from Niels 3:10 - Weekly review of returns 11:55  - Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR) 50:48 - Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020 53:47 - Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy? 57:50 - Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy? 1:03:37 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index,  why price is a better guide than expert opinion, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - Macro recap from Niels 2:57 - Weekly review of returns 6:12  - Top tweets 50:48 - Announcement of podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020 51:23 - Question 1: Drew; Should you enter a breakout trade based on an intra-day signal or end of day signal? 56:26 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss how doing less can ensure bigger & better results over time, average client holding periods versus the recommended amount of time, why short trades might be the essential part of a winning system, and why uniqueness is now a key requirement for today’s emerging managers.  Questions we cover this week include: How far should your backtest go? Can emerging Hedge Fund managers still succeed in today’s environment?  Should you adjust past data for volatility? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - Macro recap from Niels 4:11 - Weekly review of returns 7:27  - Top tweets 51:16 - Questions 1: Dane; How far should your backtest go? 54:38 - Question 2: Neal; Do you have a minimum average daily volume when trading stocks? 56:24 - Questions 3/4: James; When using multiple entry signals, do you also use multiple exit signals?  When setting up systems & doing testing, should you adjust past data for intended volatility-weighted position sizing?  Can emerging managers within the hedge fund space still succeed, among pressure for low fees, the cost of running business, & the popularity of indexing? 1:05:18 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the differences between recognizing risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity.  Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend?  Should you scale into positions? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:11 - Origins of Black Friday 2:43 - Weekly review of returns 11:45  - Top tweets 40:52 - Questions 1/2: Michael; Can the number of trades a system signals, give insight as to how well optimized the system is?  Is there a guideline for the number of trades a system should be signalling, for each chosen timeframe (such as Daily/Weekly)? 45:34 - Question 3: Richard; Comment- ‘No deterioration in the overall compound growth-rate of long-term Diversified Systematic Funds, post-2000.’ 46:53 - Questions 4/5: Bing;  Why don’t we risk more per trade? Is trader psychology the main reason for the importance placed on position sizing? 53:21 - Question 6: Jacob; Can you give examples of strategies that ‘warehouse’ risk? 56:41 - Question 7: Nathan; How do we define the parameters of a Trend? 1:01:37 - Question 8: Chad; Do you scale into a position, or go straight to the chosen max risk of equity per security? 1:05:51 - Questions 9/10: Chris;  What should I do with surplus cash once my system reaches its maximum number of positions allowed to be traded simultaneously?  Has the average margin requirements for Bitcoin changed? 1:11:00 - Performance recap 1:24:44 - Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader?   Subscribe on:

Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated?  Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time?  Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on?  Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader?  Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:57 - Macro recap from Niels 1:55 - Weekly review of returns 8:22  - Top tweets 46:30 - Questions 1/2: Derek; How do you adapt Trend Following models for a constrained universe of markets?  How do you educate fundamental Traders about quant investing? 53:31 - Questions 3/4/5: Jonathan; Does having a 5000 sample size backtest apply to each market in each system? Do you use out-of-sample testing? Do you optimize using multiple time-periods? 1:00:37 - Questions 6/7: Indrius; How do you use ATR? Do you take less risk per market as you trade more positions? 1:04:22 - Question 8/9: Brian; How many other Trend Following managers should you invest in?  How would you seek out other managers to invest in? 1:12:13 - Question 10: Maurici; Do you use the same stop-loss for every position? 1:19:15 - Question 11: Michael; Why incur personnel costs if all you need is a computer to run your systems? 1:23:37 - Performance recap 1:24:44 - Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader? Subscribe on:

In this week’s edition, we discuss the possible benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio, whether or not you need to have a ‘feel’ for the markets before constructing a model, the new all-time highs on the Dow, Trend Following as a viable solution to the end of the 60/40 portfolio, and the longer-term drawbacks of chasing performance from different fund managers.  Questions we cover this week include: What really went wrong with LTCM? Should Trend Followers also employ Buy & Hold strategies? Is it ok to ‘leave money on the table’?  How would you go about getting into the CTA industry? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - Events review 4:00 - Review of returns & more 17:10 - Top tweets 51:50 - Question 1: Carl; Is the stop price impacted by the cost of execution? 55:30 - Question 2: Saleh; Can you design a system that works in both trending markets and range bound markets? 1:01:55 - Question 3: Edrico; When adding new markets, do you consider correlations to existing markets in a system? 1:04:10 - Question 4: Glen; How would you break into the CTA industry? 1:13:35 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

In this week’s episode, we discuss the recently published book on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies, why you shouldn’t be too focused on one position, why it can be difficult to avoid overriding your system based on recent fundamentals, what investors can learn from the world’s best Poker players, and why luck should only be the result of following your edge.  Plenty of questions answered this week including: Should you add to winning positions?  Do you only trade Breakouts or do you also use indicators?  Does less volatility mean more robustness?  Do you trade ETFs? Thank you very much to Jim for submitting your voicemail. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:50 - Live event review 2:45 - Review of returns 10:40-  Voicemail from Jim 13:20 - Top tweets 36:05 - Question 1: Matt; Do you use indicators beyond price action and new highs/lows? 42:00 - Questions 2/3: James; How do you calculate sample size? Does each lookback window need to be treated independently or should risk be managed in aggregate? 51:40 - Questions 4/5: Brian; Why are more volatile systems considered more robust? Does lower volatility lead to better compound returns? 1:06:40 - Question 6: Gaetano; Do you trade ETFs? 1:10:00 - Performance recap 1:11:00-  Ray Dalio discussion     Subscribe on:

This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid with profits may be the reason for why Trend Following works, Dunn’s Capital’s recent milestone of 45 consistent years in the business, why Trend Following strategies are more than just the ‘perfect hedge’, ways that Trend Following can be applied to life, and we touch Abbey Capital’s recent article regarding Trend Following performance over the current decade, compared to previous decades.  Questions answered this week include: Should long and short entries be symmetrical?  Should you limit position sizing in particular markets?  What do you define as a small loss? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - Macro recap from Niels 2:20-  Weekly review of returns 9:00 - Top tweets 35:05 - Questions 1/2: David; Should a bearish strategy mirror a bullish strategy (i.e. 100 day hi/lo entry for both)? Should you expect bearish strategies to do as well as bullish strategies? 39:45 - Question 3: Walter; Do you have position size limits on individual contracts? 44:15 - Question 4: Neil; What is the definition of a “small loss”? 49:50 - Performance recap 50:55 - Discussion of Abbey Capital white paper Subscribe on:

On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, the importance of avoiding Outcome Bias,  how cockroaches behave in ways that should be the basis of any robust Trading System, and Niels explains how to use the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer.  Questions we answer this week include: Do you prefer simple or exponential Moving Averages? Should you use the closing price or the settlement price? Do you measure ATR from the closing price or settlement price?  How would you best illustrate trend strength over particular periods of time? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 0:50 - Live event recap 6:00 - Macro recap from Niels 9:55 - Weekly review of returns 12:45 Niels describes his trend indicator 16:40 - Top tweets 34:55 - Questions 1/2: Scott; Do you prefer a specific type of moving average? Do you use settlement or last trade in your models? 38:50 - Question 3: Carl; Do you calculate ATR using the closing price (versus entry price)? 40:30 - Question 4: Nathan; How do you articulate the current volatility environment versus history? 50:00 - Performance recap 51:40 - More live event comments Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss Bank of America’s declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves.  Questions we cover this week include: what can be considered a large enough sample size when performing a backtest? What is the best investing advice you have ever received? Should Trend Following funds screen potential clients? How do you deal with positions that show no price movement for a period of time? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - Macro recap from Niels 4:10 - Weekly review of returns 7:00-  Top tweets 38:00 - Question 1: Jacob; How do you do actual executions (order types, manual, etc.)? 40:50 - Question 2: Jacob; When you get a fill, how do you set your stop? 42:40 - Question 3: Jacob; What happens if a stop is hit on the day of entry? 45:40-  Question 4: Mannik; What sample size is sufficient for a backtest? 49:30 - Questions 5/6: Craig; Should TF investors be screened for patience? What personality traits are best for TF and the required patience? 57:40-  Questions 7/8: Dimitri; How do you handle positions that haven’t moved in a long time? Does the potential for a large move increase the longer a price goes sideways? 1:03:20 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? Is there a way to achieve exceptionally high returns with minimal risk & volatility?  What really is a ‘fat tail’?  Can Trend Followers make money in rising interest-rate environments?  Can you apply Trend Following to the VIX index? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 Intro 1:15 Macro recap from Niels 8:15 Top tweets 45:45 Question 1: Gaetano; Is it reasonable to TF volatility/VIX futures? 50:00 Debate: Can TF make money in a rising rate environment? 1:01:20 Performance recap 1:03:30 Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea.  Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimization of your strategy come from an ideas-based approach or a data-based approach?  How do you feel about the integration of Value Investing into a Trend Following strategy?  What does discipline mean to you, and how do you stay disciplined? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here (only 1 space left). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 Intro 1:05 Request for podcast reviews 1:30 Macro recap from Niels 4:00 Weekly review of returns 11:10 Top tweets 43:25 Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull 44:20 Question 1: Chris; What should an individual pay in fees (data, commissions, etc.)? 47:45 Question 2: Chris; Do you follow front month or highest open interest contracts/continuous contracts or the month you are trading? 54:30 Question 3: Jacob; Have you encountered extremely low frequency CTAs? 1:00:20 Question 4: Jacob; What is your opinion on optimizing using ideas (vs data) first? 1:03:50 Question 5: Jacob; How do you feel about TF meets value investing? 1:08:30 Question 6: Adrian; What does discipline mean to you and how do you stay disciplined? 1:15:00 Performance recap Subscribe on:

“We do two of the hardest styles of investing that I am aware of.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market average over the past three years. Listen in to today's episode to learn how Alan’s strategies are different from traditional managed futures, his managerial approach that enables employees to innovate, and what an investor should ask a potential manager when doing their due diligence. Thanks for listening and please welcome our guest Alan Sheen. In This Episode, You'll Learn: Why Alan developed a hedging strategy based on volatility and liquidity The connection between the Australian and US markets Why Alan does not trade in US markets in his intra-day strategy Why Dalton Street Capital focuses on Australiasian markets “Our managed futures have had a very similar experience to most managed futures - we’ve been flat to down over the last three years. But what has dragged us through these last three years is that equity exposure.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) Where Dalton Street Capital’s return profile comes from Why Alan also trades in medium to long-term trend following How Dalton Street Capital’s equity portfolio performs against the market average Alan’s perspective on model decay “If you’re not going to invest the way we do in a systematic manner, good luck with anything else because it’s not repeatable.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) Why alignment of interest is important in an investment strategy How Alan approaches market research What questions should investors be asking themselves Connect with Dalton Street Capital: Visit the Website: Dalton Street Capital Call Dalton Street Capital: +61 2 8651 3489 “Model decay occurs significantly in strategies that are risk based and not behavioral.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) Subscribe on: Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Niels Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged, where I continue my conversation with Alan Sheen, the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Dalton Street Capital, a global systematic investment and research company based in Sydney, Australia.  I want to dig, obviously, a lot deeper into your strategies. I think the best place, maybe, to begin is with the absolute return strategy, since this is something that you had been running before, I guess, at Dalton Street. So, can you go back and tell us about how this came about and what the strategy is trying to capture?  Alan The strategy is purely... The one that I mentioned before, this was my very first managed futures strategy that I designed. I didn't know it was a managed futures strategy at the time, and it was originally designed to hedge a basket of (and this sounds unusual, now that I repeat it, but this was the desire at the time) Australian equities over the trading day, in Australia.  Obviously, at the time, the asset owner that I was working for had a particular view, and didn't want to sell down the equity holding but just wanted to protect it during the day. Notwithstanding, I've since found out that more of the move in the Australian market happens overnight when it's closed. There's a huge gap overnight, but anyway, notwithstanding all of that.   So, I developed this hedging strategy and it was based on volatility and liquidity, because I thought, "Gosh, if this guy wants me to do a hedging strategy, all the traditional measures that I knew just wouldn't work: PEs, dividend yields, all these long-term factors were never going to work." That's when I was caught up with these guys called Quants, they were talking about the VIX, and I thought, "Well, this is interesting. Volatility and liquidity, there may be something to that.

In this week's episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers', and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy.  Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities?  Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames?  Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - Reading of various podcast reviews 3:00 -  Macro recap from Niels 6:20 - Weekly review of returns 10:15 - Discussion of Mercer Trend Following paper 18:15 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull 20:35 - Top tweets 36:10 - Questions 1/2/3: Eric; Do you hedge with OTM options? Can you use options to trade trends? Will HFT algos negatively impact TF systems? 41:40 - Question 4: Sam; Should stop distance (ATR multiple) adjust with the trend speed? 47:50 - Question 5: Noobe; Are there any contracts a new manager should avoid? 54:20 - Question 6: Clay; With minimal trading activity, what do TF do all day? 1:00:50 - Question 7: Giangitano; Should you have real stop orders in the market (vs stop alerts)? 1:09:20 - Performance recap 1:10:15 - Closing thoughts Subscribe on:

“I learned everything I ever needed to know about systematic and quantitative investing even before I set foot in the field because systematic and quantitative investing, at the end of the day, is about discipline.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street Capital. Alan has an interesting background in science and engineering, and also spent time in the military, which allowed him to later thrive in rules-based investing. He’s also the first Australian manager to be on the podcast. Listen in to today's episode to learn about Alan’s journey from the Australian military to starting his own investment firm, why investors should look at volatility not as risk but as an opportunity, and what an investor’s own personal car says about their investment strategies. Thanks for listening and please welcome our guest Alan Sheen. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: What Alan’s childhood was like in Australia Why Alan studied aeronautical engineering How Alan equates gas-turbine engines with robust investing How Alan’s experience in the military helps him as an investor “I was stunned when I came into the investment market and realized that the mentality was have a hunch, bet a bunch.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) How Alan was influenced by Darwin’s “The Origin of the Species” Quantitative investment’s prevalence in Australia in the early '90s The influence the VIX Index had on Alan’s career How Alan’s hedging strategy turned into a managed futures strategy “What I’ve tried to explain to people is volatility is not risk, volatility is opportunity.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet) Why Alan use an equity portfolio as collateral instead of cash How volatility can be opportunity and a friend How Berkshire Hathaway has benefited from a volatile market The importance of an investment manager to personalize their hedge funds Connect with Dalton Street Capital: Visit the Website: Dalton Street Capital Call Dalton Street Capital: +61 2 8651 3489 “Humans, no matter how far we’ve evolved, no matter who we mate with, no matter how intelligent we think we’ve become, our behavior doesn’t change.” - Alan Sheen (Tweet)   Links Mentioned: Sensation Seeking and Hedge Funds Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Niels Hey everyone, and welcome back to another edition of Top Traders Unplugged, where today I'm joined by Alan Sheen, who is the Founder and CIO at Dalton Street Capital, based in Sydney Australia, and, I'm pretty sure, the first Australian manager on the podcast. So, first off, Al, thanks so much for coming on the podcast with me today. I'm very excited to be able to speak to you today and about our conversation in general.  Alan Thank you very much, Niels, the feeling's mutual.  Niels Good stuff. Now, I want to kick-off, as usual, by framing what we're going to talk about today by getting a better understanding of your journey into the rules-based world of investing, which even today, I think, is not fully appreciated by enough investors. So, why don't you take us back to how it all began and how you got to where you are today.  Alan Well, I'll probably have to go back to almost childhood just to give a bit of an understanding about my thinking behind what I planned to do as an adult, so to speak. My background is that I was born and raised in a very small country town. It was under 2,000 people, in a state in Australia called New South Wales. We call it the Outback. A lot of people think of Crocodile Dundee and where the goings-on, and the crocodiles, and everything was filmed. Ours was a little bit like that but more kangaroo, sheep, and cattle.   I enjoyed that upbringing. I was very, very good at math and so on, not so good at the social sciences and the English part. I guess, notwithstanding that,

In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets.  Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees?  Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves?  Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that 'the best investments were the ones that were left alone', what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets?  Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:00 - Weekly recap from Niels 4:10 - Weekly review of returns 9:00 - Top tweets 39:00 - Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading? 48:30 - Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system? 52:20 - Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets? 1:02:00 - Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of stocks? 1:05:45 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

“Emotion overrides cognition pretty dramatically” - Daniel Crosby (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, host Niels Kaastrup-Larsen continues his conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Niels and Daniel discuss how emotion affects investment decision-making, the problem with financial media, and what investors can do to correct their bad investment behavior. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: The key points of dealing with emotion as an investor Why rules are better than goals Daniel’s Four “C”s of investing The importance of rule-following for investment managers What is the role of clarity in investing “More than anything, overcoming emotion is just about automating.” - Daniel Crosby (Tweet) Why an overabundance of data can be detrimental to decision-making The role of courageousness in investments Why process over outcome is important Why volatility is not the same as risk This episode was sponsored by:     Connect with our guests: Learn more about Daniel Crosby and Brinker Capital “There has never been a better time in the history of the world to be an investor.” - Daniel Crosby (Tweet) Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Niels Welcome back to Top Traders Round Table a podcast series on managed futures, brought to you by CME Group, where I continue my conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby who is the Chief Behavioral Officer at Brinker Capital, as well as the author of a number of highly recommended books (including the book titled The Behavioral Investor), and host of the Standard Deviation Podcast.  The fourth one that you cite, which I often think as being the biggest one, or maybe the one (at least in our industry) we talk the most about when we talk about why it makes sense to consider managed futures or trend following, and that's emotion. It's such a big. Maybe you can talk a little bit more about it. I also spoke with Andrew Lo, on the podcast, and he has also talked about the challenges with emotion. I'd love to hear your thoughts about this area as well, and what you found to be the key points when it comes to dealing with emotions, as an investor, I guess.  Daniel Yeah, the Andrew Lo episode was great. I listened to that, and I'm a big fan of his work. So, emotion is interesting because emotion overrides cognition pretty dramatically. So, when you look at studies of investors who are under duress, like investors who are under stress, we find that they lose 13% of their cognitive capacity. So, effectively, 13% of your I.Q., and you got to think that some of us don't have 13% to give. We need every last shred of brainpower that we've got.  So, emotion overrides that thinking, and it causes us to make poor decisions. There are a couple of things we can do around emotion. The first is to be a Quant: to, basically, automate doing the right thing and set in place the stopgaps that we talked about earlier. I think learning about emotion, and learning to handle it (because I think things like trend and momentum, and other things actually ride with human emotion), you can use human emotion in your favor. I think there are some examples of even ways that we can do that from an investment standpoint and in saving and planning for our financial lives.  I cite a study, in my first book, that talked about low-income savers, who looked at a picture of their children before making a financial decision, save two and a half times as much as those in a control group. So, if you're a trader (if you're an investor or trader), why are you doing this? Why are you doing this? [It's about] using that emotion to keep you focused on your 'why' and, hopefully,

In today’s episode, we discuss if it’s possible to successfully blur the lines between Discretionary & Systematic Trading, why most of the largest Hedge Funds in the world are Systematic, results of the rolling 10-year returns of Trend Following versus the S&P 500, how diversification can prevent long drawdown periods, why forming an opinion on your stock position can negatively affect how you manage the trade, and we also explain some of the differences between Cash Contracts and Continuous Contracts.  Questions answered this week include: Should you beware of high win percentages?  Are large drawdowns a normal part of Trend Following? What are the largest up or down moves we’ve ever experienced? If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - Macro recap from Niels 5:50 - Weekly review of returns 14:55 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 15:20 - Top tweets 45:40 - Question 1: Sam; What are the biggest performance moves (up/down) in your career? 54:40 -  Question 2: Sam; Why do some trade long-only (versus long-short)? 57:45- Questions 3/4: Bruno; What do you think about using cash versus futures to calculate trends/create systems? Is there a way to value a commodity? 1:04:40 - Performance recap 1:05:50 - Final thoughts Subscribe on:

The tables have turned! In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen becomes the first featured guest on Erik Townsend's newest podcast - MacroVoices Spotlight! In this epsiode, Niels and Erik discuss Trend Following, the history of the Turtle Traders, Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation, how CTAs have been performing, and much more. Erik Townsend is a software entrepreneur turned successful hedge fund manage who currently hosts the MacroVoices podcast. If you enjoyed this episode, you can visit macrovoices.com to find many more episodes on the topic of investing. Subscribe on:

“If we can follow just a couple of simple rules, we can overcome the behavioral errors which are the plague of so many investors.” - Daniel Crosby (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, host Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Dr. Crosby came to investment management through clinical psychology and therefore has a unique perspective on behavioral economics. The discussion ranges from how human behavior is evolutionarily ill-equipped for investment management, the importance of having rules for investing during turbulent times, and what investors can do to modify their behavior for success. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: What makes Daniel’s background rare in investment management How the eradication of Guinea Worm is relevant to investing behavior Why the evolution of human behavior is antithetical to investing How being a quantitative investor is beneficial to overcoming bad behavioral economics “Knowledge does very little to change human behavior.” - Daniel Crosby (Tweet) The correlation between activity and success in the markets What are the building blocks of behavioral finance Why “I don’t know” is the most under-appreciated phrase in investing The role of conservatism in behavioral economics This episode was sponsored by:     Connect with our guests: Learn more about Daniel Crosby and Brinker Capital “I never know what’s going to happen. But I am a market historian and I know what’s happened previously, and I feel I can tilt probability in my favor by operating within those parameters.” - Daniel Crosby (Tweet)

In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his role at Quad Group, his experience working with Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having solid business partners during the best and worst of times, the power of Market Cycles, how perception rather reality can affect a client’s judgement, the effectiveness of Trading coaches, and we also get Peter’s opinions on the current state of the markets.  We asked Peter many questions this week, including: Where do you draw the line between normal drawdowns, and feeling compelled to change your models?  How do you best explain the benefits of a Rules-Based Trading approach to potential clients? What does Quad Group do, and how difficult is it to find new talent?  Can the collapse of Passive Index Funds be the main driver behind the next recession? Thank you to Jim for submitting your voicemail to the show.  If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 -  Intro 1:20- Weekly review of returns 5:30 - Voicemail from Jim 7:20 - Peter Borish Bio 11:10 - Moritz: What sparked your interest in trading? 12:50 - Jerry: What are your opinions on me/CTAs and the evolution/future of the industry? 18:00 - Niels: Can you comment on Tony Robbins coaching Paul Tudor Jones? 22:20 - Niels: Do systematic traders need coaches? 29:40 - Moritz: How do you balance sticking to a system vs changing/evolving? 41:25 - Niels: How would you pitch TF nowadays to attract more investors? 47:10 - Jerry: How should systematic and discretionary be combined? 51:25 - Jerry: Do famous macro traders use trend but not talk about it? 57:25 - Niels: Do you think famous traders deep down are systematic? 59:10 - Niels: Please explain Quad Group and your role. 1:02:05 - Niels: How many managers do you evaluate and how many make the cut? 1:03:50 - Jerry: What’s your view on the future of hedge funds and CTAs? 1:04:50 - Jerry: What is your current macro view? 1:08:25 - Moritz: Is Quad’s trading systematic or discretionary? 1:09:10 - Moritz: Is the systematic trading in options/derivs or futures/stocks? 1:09:50 - Niels: How do you give people a specific loss limit at Quad but also want them to follow systems that may perform worse than backtests/history? 1:14:40 - Jerry: How do you help a trader grow his AUM/business at Quad? 1:17:00 - Niels: What questions do you ask potential managers? 1:18:50 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

In this week’s show, we discuss using multiple systems to further enhance diversification, the differences between a portfolio meeting expectations versus benchmarking it against an Index, Trend Following in-house versus using an experienced Systematic Investment manager, having the temperament to stay the course with your investments, and the effectiveness of trying to predict the next moves of CTAs. Questions answered this week include: Are interest rates lower than usual at the moment? Does the market ever display any meaningful sentiments from the crowds? Do we use any rules for liquidity? What questions would we consider before allocating to a Systematic Trading strategy? What’s the maximum loss of equity we would be willing to accept due to one return driver, such as the Swiss Franc in 2015, and do we ever have to ‘step-in’ and override our systems? Thanks to Seth for submitting your voicemail to the show.  If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here. Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Today we discuss the potential dangers of avoiding simplicity, how good Trading is counter-intuitive to Human Nature, the benefits of doing the same thing over and over, how to earn big profits through aggressive Trend Following strategies, the secrets to building wealth through investing, and how we like to approach correlations in our portfolios.  Questions answered this week include: Why are complex strategies more attractive to investors?  Is the phrase ‘this time it’s different’ actually true?  How important is it to have access to vast amounts of data?  How much capital is needed to operate a profitable & diversified Trend Following portfolio?  What questions should Investors be asking Fund Managers?  Do we use Volume as part of our strategies? Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:00 - Macro recap from Niels 2:40 - Weekly review of returns 7:45 - Voicemail from Sam 10:15 - Top tweets 44:20 - Question 1: George; With small AUM, should traders/investors outsource TF? 1:04:15 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 1:05:00 - Questions 2/3: James; What are the most misunderstood parts of TF? What questions should investors be asking? 1:19:50 - Questions 4/5: James; Do you look at volume or just price? If correlations pick up, do you alter your system? 1:22:45 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of Investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of Investing, the differences between Buy-and-Hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, as well as the art of profiting from Tail Events.  Questions we address this week include: is Inter-Market Analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Should a Trading System be designed to be comfortable to execute?  Would a reduced presence of Trend Followers in the market result in slower, more random price movements?  What is the overall effect on markets of large participation from Trend Following strategies, and can the space become too overcrowded? Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:00 - Macro recap from Niels 3:40 - Weekly review of returns 8:30 - Top tweets 59:30 - Question 1: Craig; If less TF market participants exist, shouldn’t trends be slower and more random on ST horizons? 1:12:45 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 1:13:30 - Performance recap 1:15:00 - Challenge to Sam to record the first message Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average?  Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests?  Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way?  What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies?  Is there a limit to portfolio diversification? Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:45 - Macro recap from Niels 3:25 - Weekly review of returns 12:20 - Top tweets 34:40 - Question 1, Sam: What is the benchmark TF Sharpe ratio? 43:00 - Question 2, Sam: Can there be too much diversification? 53:15 - Question 3, Walter: Please discuss how you deal with foreign currency denominated futures. 58:10 - Question 4, Walter: Since most stocks don’t beat the index or T-bills, shouldn’t shorting be easy (versus the conventional wisdom shorting is hard)? 1:03:00 - Questions 5 & 6, Jeff: What are the risks of using larger (vs smaller) ATR multiples for exits? What kind of exits does DUNN use? 1:08:40 - Performance recap 1:09:40 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 Subscribe on:

This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing.  Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comparison when gauging Trend Following performance?  Are there any signals that can reliably measure trend strength? When Trend Following strategies aren’t working, should you apply any other strategies?  Does Jerry trade Index Futures or single stocks? Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Request for podcast reviews 2:45 - Macro recap from Niels 6:45 - Weekly review of returns 8:50 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 9:50 - Top tweets 44:30 - Question 1: Sandeep; Please discuss market correlations. 49:40 - Questions 2/3: James; When adding new markets to a system, what are you looking for? How do you calculate trend strength? 1:00:30 - Question 4: Dante; What strategy should one use in high volatility periods? 1:04:30 - Question 5: Ali; How do you pick the markets in your system? 1:09:20 - Question 6: Ali; Will Jerry please discuss how he trades single stocks 1:13:00 - Question 7: Ali; Can you recommend a broker? 1:14:15 - Question 8: Ali; Please discuss margin to equity and position sizing 1:18:00 - Performance recap 1:19:15 - Check out Top Traders VoiceMail Subscribe on:

When it comes to Behavioural Finance, a few people stand out in terms of their contribution to helping us all understand why and how it works. The intersection between Human Behaviour and Quantitative Investing can be difficult to understand for even the most sophisticated investors.  Today, I want to share some really important insights from one of my favorite professors, who is also a practitioner of this discipline, namely Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MITs laboratory of Financial Engineering.  Many people know Andrew as the father of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and our conversation was wide ranging, entertaining, and deeply insightful.  So enjoy these truly unique take aways from Professor Andrew Lo, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 18 and Episode 19. The Ecosystem of the Financial Markets Niels: Now, our conversation today will focus on a number of different topics within the managed futures industry, and, perhaps, a few that will fall a little bit outside of this. So, to kick things off in a slightly different way, I want to come to you, Andrew, first, and ask what you think of when I say Rabbi Mahony, Rabbi Mahony, Rabbi Mahony, and I hope you know what I’m referring to so that our listeners don’t think that I’ve completely lost it at this stage. Andrew:  Well, thank you for bringing that up. That comes from one of my stories that I’ve written about in my book, Adaptive Markets. It’s an idea about thinking about financial markets more like a biological ecosystem rather than a physical system.  As you may know, most economists suffer from this disease that I call physics envy. We wish that we had three laws that explained ninety-nine percent of all behavior, the way the physicists do. In fact, we have ninety-nine laws that explain only three percent. So, the idea behind adaptive markets is that we really have to think about these financial market dynamics as coming from human interactions, and trying to model those human interactions is really critical. So, the Rabbi Mahony story really has to do with the fact that I heard many years ago about a technique for getting parking in Harvard Square.  It’s a terrible, terrible challenge to drive a car into Harvard Square because there is never any parking. So, for years I just decided not to do it. But, a friend of mine said that, if you used this following algorithm: before you go to Harvard Square you utter the incantation, Rabbi Mahony, Rabbi Mahony, Rabbi Mahony, at that point you should be able to go to Harvard Square and get parking. The amazing thing is this algorithm actually works. But, the more interesting reason is why it works. It works because it changes the way we behave. It changes our expectation for getting a space. Because now, once you utter the incantation, you must, somehow, in a part of your brain, believe that you might be able to get a space and that changes the way you drive. It changes how you look for parking, and, magically you actually increase the chances of getting a space. So, it really says that human behavior can actually change our reality.  Sometimes things need to be believed in to be seen. Niels:  Yeah, absolutely. Just out of curiosity, do you think that belief always precedes action and plausibility? Andrew:  I think it is something that happens simultaneously, in many cases. Our beliefs have an impact on our behavior, but our behavior has an impact on reality, and that reality shapes our beliefs. So, it’s kind of a feedback loop that is happening and updating all the time. Unless we’re aware of that, it’s very easy for us to get mislead by various kinds of market events and ultimately end up down a rabbit hole of behavioral biases that ultimately end up hurting us in our investment strategies. Niels:  Yeah, well I look forward to finding out whether this little chant also works finding a parking place here in Switz...

This week, we discuss whether commodities are more risky to trade than equities, if a stocks-only Trend Following strategy can be profitable in the long run, if a deep drawdown is worse than a long drawdown, and the importance of over-estimating any possible drawdowns implied by a backtest. Questions answered include: should all Trend Following funds be required to provide Crisis Alpha? Is there ever a good time to override your system and trade outside of the rules? Should you always execute trades from your signals immediately, or wait for an extra confirmation sometimes? Is there an edge to be gained from seeking the perfect entry into a long-term trade? How many positions should you have open at any one time? What can be considered a good amount of leverage? Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Request for podcast reviews from listeners 2:15 - Intro/Macro recap from Niels 7:50 - Weekly review of returns 11:50 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 12:50 - Top tweets 58:50 - Questions 1/2/3: James; Why don’t you like the original Turtle system? What systems do you prefer? Regarding entries/exits, do you prefer executing intraday, on close, etc.? 1:06:20 - Question 4: James; What is the average leverage in your portfolio and how many positions do you hold at any one time? 1:12:30 - Performance recap 1:14:00 - Discussion of Salem Abraham decision to revamp his business away from a classic CTA Trend Following shop Subscribe on:

It has been said that: 'The biggest room of all, is the room for improvement', and one thing that is clear to see in the amazing careers of today’s guests, is the continued hunger for learning in the quest for an improved investment process. This has led to an unprecedented success for this trio.  Today, I share the last key insights from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL.  In this post, we don’t just discuss the importance of learning... but also how you must un-learn certain things in order to move forward.  Lastly, we discuss what the three of them wish the legacy of AHL will be. So, sit back and relax and enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, and I hope you do, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 13. Keeping Systems Optimized & Minds Open Niels: I think it was once said that, "The biggest room of all is the room for improvement." By this I mean, when I look at your achievements, I see a continuing hunger for learning. What about the flip side, you touched upon it earlier today about unlearning. Are there certain things you've found really important to unlearn in order to continue to improve your strategies? Were there things that you thought were really good only to realize that they were in fact flawed and much riskier than you thought? Mike: That's probably a different view amongst the three of us. I remember, in the early days, David had an office where what he would do, he was surrounded by data, there literally was this much. His desk used to be a complete chaotic mess full of cuttings from the Wall Street Journal and bits of paper and notes. My desk was always completely clean. I thought that that was because I was more organized and focused than David, and he used to say to me, "Empty desk, empty mind."  I've always believed that one of the biggest challenges in systematic trading is not remembering what you know it's having the discipline to forget what you know because applying what you know to the next thing that you do is a very powerful hidden form of optimization. I think that building into research processes the organized capacity and insistence that people forget. Also, recruiting people who never worked in the field before, always, always, feeding people who aren't polluted by knowing stuff is really, really, important. On the other hand it's very hard to develop systemic trading if you don't have a real feel for the way that markets work, so there's this constant battle, I think, between what insights you have, what wisdom you have on the one hand, and yet have the abilities to forget the specifics. I don't have an answer to that. I think it is extremely hard to do. David: Yeah, I think what you said is spot on. Also, with the other people we've recruited, the struggle has been to get them to forget the efficient market theory. You need clever people with good mathematics and computer science. Typically you get them because they've passed degrees and took exams and so on and so forth. They've often been taught the efficient market theory which is a beguiling theory because the mathematics is appealing and difficult so it's something they can master. 'The whole thing is always in need of constant care and attention. We spent an awful lot of time and money on improving the execution of what we do, and I think we got that to a really great place, and there's more that we can do.' Then having mastered that they believe it to be true, most of them - most people having mastered something difficult.I think education can crush creativity. It's interesting that Steve Jobs didn't actually get a degree, isn't it? He went off and did a smorgasbord of courses including, famously, calligraphy. I think, sadly, over educated people probably can know too much to be creative. Having said that,

In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold.  We also touch on the perils of having too many filters that keep you from entering a trade, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ trade recommendations from others, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, and the reasons for buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low.  Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria?  Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Request for podcast reviews from listeners 2:30 - Intro/Macro recap from Niels 3:30 - Weekly review of returns 6:30 - Discussion of Ray Dalio article 10:00 - Jerry’s highlights for the week 12:15 - Discussion of paper on TF speeds 27:00 - Top tweets 58:30 - Questions 1/2: Harsh; Can you have different exits for longs and shorts? Can stop distance adjust dynamically based on profit? 1:06:00 - Question 3: Sebastian; Can you trade without pain/fear if you deeply believe in your approach? 1:14:15 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

In 1987, 3 scientists, 1 from Cambridge and 2 from Oxford, were brought together by their shared passion for the markets and for computers.  Little did they know, that over the next 3 decades, this passion would lead them to build 3 world-leading multi-billion dollar Systematic Investment businesses.  Today, I would like to share another Golden Nugget with you, from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we focus on how markets and the importance of Asset Allocation have evolved since the beginning; a crucial insight into what has made them so successful.  So enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 11. The World's Biggest Neuron Network Niels: Historically, at least, the role price of a market has been the only input in systematic models, certainly in the trend following space. The universe of markets have also been very well defined, being highly liquid, exchange traded, like futures on CME. Tell me, how have you evolved when it comes to the data you use and the markets you trade? David: We trade a lot of equities and we use a lot of other data sources, basically. Niels: What could they be? David: You got me there. (Laughter) Most of the risk is on endogenous variables like price, intra-relationships between markets, and various convolutions of price, sectors, and this sort of thing. Obviously, we have all the balance sheet data, all the fundamental data, all the weather data, there are all sorts of different types of data. We have a lot of experimental systems with small amounts of money on them. I expect we have one or two bigger allocations with key data inputs, but those I'm keeping to myself. Niels: What about you Marty? Are you looking in new directions when it comes to data and markets? Maybe I can follow-up because that's my next point I want to ask, is about are you also moving off the exchange? What's the motivation for doing that and what are the risks you have to take into account if indeed you are? Marty: Well, so the first question is data and the evolution of the trading programs. Of course, we have an appetite for new ideas, new influences on markets, new effects. As David says, "If we knew what the next big thing was we wouldn't tell you and it wouldn't be research."  I think there's a lot of hype these days with machine learning techniques and all this just explosion of new data sources that surely the answer is in there somewhere. If you just leave it to the folks at Google the answer will become immediately apparent. My view is it's a little bit harder than that. There's plenty of work to be done and there's plenty of opportunities. So, I'm not going to claim that we've got some fantastic new system that employs satellite data and engages recursive neural net and presto we know what's happening tomorrow and next week. 'I think all three of us have a healthy paranoia around operating in the markets, and that comes from the real experiences of thinking it was safe when it wasn't safe.' So, no, it is overhyped. On the other hand, it is there. That data exists and there's more information out there than there's ever been, ever. You need to work out how to assimilate, how to digest and how to use that stuff. David: One of the things that experience has taught all of us is danger of hindsight bias or over fitting to data sets. You saw this recently in a rich data set, or maybe 5 or 6 years ago. This Google Trends is a huge and rich new data set, obviously, a vast amount of data using Google's algorithm which forecasts when there are going to be flu epidemics. It made the front page of all the newspapers. It made the BBC News. This is somewhere between irritating and intimidating when your entire career has been based around time series analysis and yo...

On this week’s episode, we discuss the resurgence of ‘boutique’ funds, the new Austrian bond which promises a yield of 1.2% over 98 years, why having new markets to Trade can be good thing, and the differences between Volatility Targeting, versus adjusting overall risk exposure according to market conditions.  Questions answered this week include, should you really trade a strategy that suits you?  What is the ideal sample size when backtesting data, and should you pay attention to valuation when entering a Trending market? (**Due to a technical issue with Jerry’s audio this week, his sound quality is not as good as usual.  Our apologies for this.) You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

One of the great Investment books of all time is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, which is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous Financial Speculator of all time: Jesse Livermore. There is no doubt that even today, 100 years later, we can all learn from of the experiences of successful Investors. In this Best of Top Traders Unplugged, which I have appropriately titled Reminiscences of 3 Trend Followers, Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL, finally shed light on one of the best kept secrets of modern finance.  I sat down with them in Abbey Road Studios in London, on the 30-year anniversary of when they founded AHL.  The conversation turned out to be witty, inspiring, and far more entertaining than it had any right to be.  So, enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 11. Sugarcoating The Medicine Of Trend Following Niels: Now, rightly or wrongly my understanding of Winton and Aspect, in the early years, was that both firms had an emphasis on Trend Following within your strategies. From what I've observed, over the years, this seems still to be the case for you, Marty, at Aspect, but perhaps less so for you David. So let me come to you first on this one, David. If my observation is right, when did you begin to move away from the classical trend following approach, if I can call it that? Also, what was your motivation for doing so? David: It's a question of degree. There's still a fair amount of Trend Following in what we do but when we were doing our research in the early 90s we did a literature review and looked at what else, what other opportunities there were and we scoured the literature. Time and time again we came across academic papers referring to what is now called carry - the phenomenon of carry.  So we focused a lot of our research on that.  We developed a bunch of trading systems which used that and we even got as far as implementing those trading systems. They all went a bit wrong in the ERM - when Sterling exited the ERM. At that stage, we had quite a bureaucratic board process and it had become hard to take risks and so all those systems were taken out. The significance is that they went on and worked very, very well for the next 20 years - as well as Trend Following, actually. So, we didn't use that until maybe 2005 or 2006 or 2007 but it worked extremely well. There were other things that we were developing back then, which also worked, subsequently. They're not in the form that we were developing. There are some things that we developed back then which we still use today. To really fully exploit the potential of this kind of research you have to move into equity markets and it took me a long, long, long time to develop all the infrastructure and expertise to deal with thousands of equities, databases, corporate actions, and so on and so forth. By the time we'd done that the easy money in Convertible Arb was long gone, that was long gone - after 2008 really, with a number of other strategies, the easy money was long gone.  My own pitch is I just don't think the markets... There will never be no opportunities for people to do more research in science. Some people think that we're on the verge of a grand unified field theory of everything, and a grand unified field theory of efficient markets, and I just don't believe that. I know people who say, "Well, what it is then? What is the next big thing then?" Well, I don't know, that's why you have to do research. Niels: Very true. You've stayed true to your roots to a large extent Marty: To degrees, to degrees, Aspect was predicated on this trend following approach being an important utility that was begin overlooked by the investment community. It really did deserve a place in people's portfolios. The irony,

In this episode, we discuss the recent article from AQR Capital's Cliff Asness on the difficulty of sticking to a strategy through volatile periods, why we may never know if a particular system is broken, the differences between different Trading timeframes, and we give an update on the upcoming live event in New York in October.  We also answer some questions such as:  Is there a ‘Holy Grail’ of Stop Losses?  What is a good way to backtest a Trading system?  Is there a point where too much Diversification begins to negatively affect the return profile in a portfolio?  What are the possible causes that would move a person to Trade a longer timeframe? (**Please note that there was a technical issue with Jerry’s audio this week, and therefore he is only on the show for the first 20 minutes) You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro/Macro recap from Niels 2:45 - Weekly review of returns 11:30 - Top tweets AQR Paper Reference: Quant Cassandra 20:30 - Question 1: James; Where can one find more information on stop losses/risk mgmt? Basso Research: How This Random Entry Method Beat The Market Book 1: Van Tharp’s Definitive Guide to Position Sizing Strategies Book 2: Van Tharp’s Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom 28:00 - Question 2: Brian; What software do you recommend for backtesting? 31:50 - Question 3: Paul; Discussion of the multiple facets of diversification 38:00 - Question 4: James; Can there be too much diversification? Article Reference: Wes Gray- Trend Following A Decade of Underperformance & The Epitome of No Pain, No Gain 51:15 - Question 5: Sam; What made Jerry decide to shift to longer-term trading? 55:20 - Performance recap 56:30 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 Subscribe on:

Today we’re joined on the show by Salem Abraham, a legendary Trend Follower, and President of Abraham Trading Company based in Canadian, Texas.  We discuss if Bitcoin has any real value, how Jerry Parker influenced Salem early in his career (and how he was able to help Jerry), why we don’t need to understand the reasons for a price going up, how looking at your returns too often can affect your performance, if Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding are right about the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, and how being exposed to a variety of markets can reduce risk in a portfolio.  Questions answered include: what is Salem’s preferred timeframe to trade in?  Why is there such an increase in Return Dispersion among Trend Following funds today, compared to a while ago? What are Salem’s thoughts on High-Frequency Trading, Electronic Trading, and Arbitrage?  Will Trend Following ever become too over-crowded? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary • 0:00 - Intro • 2:45 - Weekly review including Salem’s thoughts • 15:35 - Salem describes his background and discussion ensues • 47:00 - Top tweets • 1:09:30 - Question: What do you think about the markets being made up of more computers (vs humans)? • 1:30:15 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

On today’s episode, we give our thoughts on the recent Bitcoin rally, the possible benefits of trading single stocks rather than indices, how spending less time looking at the markets can benefit your Trading, and we also offer some other suggestions for better Trading Discipline.  Questions answered this week include: what are the main characteristics of a successful Trader?  How often should you change your parameter combinations?  How short-term did The Turtles trade, and how does that compare to Jerry’s Trading style today?  What is the definition of long-term Trading, and should CTAs be more longer-term in their strategies? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 @MoritzSeibert, & @choffstein And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast.  We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns.  Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk', why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns.  We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Corey on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 @MoritzSeibert, & @choffstein And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary • 00:00 - Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED • 05:35 - Weekly review • 08:50-  Corey describes his background • 22:00 - Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When • 35:10 - Question: How do you know when your model is broken? • 42:15 - Question: Do you think TF will continue to work? • 52:00 - Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it! • 56:50 - Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed? • 1:01:20 - Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio? • 1:06:45 - Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc. • 1:17:40 - Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else? • 1:21:20 - Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10 years out...unlike most other things in life? • 1:27:00 - Question: Do you think past performance is a guide? • 1:29:15 - Question from Christian: Do you think more information in models adds value? • 1:33:00 - Question from another Moritz: How do you invest personally? • 1:36:50 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

In the previous Best of Top Traders Unplugged, we went back in time to re-visit some of the key lessons that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2008. It was my way of reminding myself, and you, of something that we as investors must never forget.  Today, Robert Carver goes much deeper into the human psychology that makes us ill-equipped to deal with our emotions in a rational way when it comes to making good investment decisions, and also, how you can overcome this behaviour and make your own plan for financial success.  So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, you can go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 89 and Episode 90. The Hindrance of Human Instinct Rob: ...So I’m genuinely interested in educating people and trying to explain to them that they need to be more realistic. That’s a completely different market place from where you are trying to compete with people who are trying to make the most outlandish claims to stand out from the pack of people making similar outlandish claims. Niels:  I agree with that completely. I think it is evident from reading your book that, that is the fundamental motivation. Now you touched already upon the point about the flawed human brain in your book, and you end up talking a little bit about some of the temptation of taking profits early and letting our losses run, and that’s really how we as human beings are wired. Tell me a little bit more about that and what it really means when it comes to trading if you get this balance the wrong way around so to speak, and what you found when you test this kind of human behavior if I can call it that. Rob:  So the natural human instinct when you see a position rise in price and you're long, is to say… is to want to take a profit. And this comes down to essentially that kind of strong feeling and you want to kind of lock that in. And the reason you want to lock that in is that you want to prove that you are right.  It’s the overwhelming human emotion to prove that you are doing the right thing and it’s called confirmation bias in the literature. Now when its stocks falling, if you sell a loss, then you’re going to be proving that you are wrong and nobody wants to do that. So what you actually then want to do is hang onto that position and hope it goes up in value. And as it keeps falling of course you have the same conversation with yourself until you’re forced to sell and perhaps because you’ve run out of money. So it’s really about the way the human brain is treating unrealized losses and unrealized losses differently. We are thinking about them differently. Even though they’re exactly the same. And you know this kind of mindset that it’s not a profit until you’ve sold it and it’s not a loss until you’ve taken the loss. It’s completely wrong. Now it’s very easy to think about a sort of pattern of price where it would actually make sense to buy on a small profit, and that would be if the market was trading in a small range. Now the problem is that most of the time markets don’t do that they trend. This isn’t the time for that kind of theological argument about whether trend following is a good thing or a bad thing. '...even in the large institutions that trade systematically, you still have debates about whether we should override the system, or cut the system's risk because of something that is going on in the world.' Certainly in the past people like Winton have done tests over hundreds of years of data where it is available, and markets have in the past exhibited a behavior where they’re trending. So if markets are going to trend and this behavior where you’re going to sell at a small profit and cut only when you’ve got a huge loss is exactly the wrong thing to do. You should do exactly the opposite of that, which is what a trend following system will do. So this is a really good example of where there is a human bias i...

Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy?  Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets?  Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal?  We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:55 - Weekly review 11:50 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 13:00 - Top tweets 45:00 - Discussion of Goldman Sachs paper on TF 52:20 - Discussion of Morningstar “bubble” portfolio article 56:10 - Discussion of Real Vision video on volatility  57:00 - Discussion of FT article on South Korea  1:00:00 - Question 1: Ryan; Can the VIX be traded as part of a TF strategy? 1:08:00 - Performance recap 1:09:00 - Next week’s special guest is Corey Hoffstein Subscribe on:

The financial crisis back in 2008 is slowly fading from the memories of investors. But for those of us who lived and traded through it, many important lessons were learned, and usually the hard way.  For many investors, it was a period that can be best described as an Emotional Roller-Coaster, where billions of dollars were lost by investment decisions which were primarily driven by emotions.  In my hope to make sure that these lessons are not forgotten and wasted, I wanted to share a story that I think many of us can relate to.  So I looked through my list of guests to pull a few Golden Nuggets from on this topic, and I thought that Robert Carver, who spent many years at AHL before deciding to share his knowledge about Systematic Trading through his books and blog, would be ideal for this.  So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, you can go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 89. A Solution For Avoiding Irrational Decisions Niels:  I can’t think of a better way to kick things off then by setting the scene, and you reading a little bit of the book in order for people to get a sense of your writing style which I very much enjoy.  So I would kindly ask you maybe to read a little bit of the preface and then a little bit of the introduction to the book, if you don’t mind. Rob:  Sure.  “I’m very bad at making financial decisions. Like most people I find it difficult to manage my investments without becoming emotional and behaving irrationally. This is deeply irritating, as I consider myself to be very knowledgeable about finance. I’ve voraciously read the academic literature, done my own detailed research, spent 20 years investing my own money, and nearly a decade managing funds for large institutions. So in theory, I know what I’m doing. In practice, when faced with a decision to buy or sell a stock, things go wrong. Fear and greed wash through my mind, clouding my judgement. Even if I spend weeks researching a company, it’s still hard to click the trade button on my broker’s website. I have to stop myself buying or selling on a whim. Based on nothing more than random newspaper articles or an anonymous blogger's opinion, but then, like you, I’m only human. Fortunately, there is a solution. The answer is to fully, or partly, systematize your financial decision making. Creating a trading system removes the emotion and makes it easier to commit to a consistent strategy. I spent many years managing a large portfolio of trading strategies for a systematic hedge fund. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the opportunity to develop and trade systems to look after my personal portfolio. But after leaving the industry, I’ve been able to make my own trading process entirely systematic resulting in significantly better performance.” I will now read from the Introduction. "But I hesitated, everything had happened as expected. I should go ahead and buy, but what if this was wrong, what if the financial industry really was imploding as everyone else seemed to think?" “It was the 23rd of January in 2009 and I was in my London office. Although I had a desk overlooking the Thames, I was usually too busy to appreciate the view. My day job was managing a portfolio of systematic trading strategies for a large hedge fund. But right now I was focusing on my own bank balance. Data was about to be released indicating how the UK colony had performed in the last three months of 2008. It would be bad news, the official confirmation that we were in recession, but nobody knew how bad. This didn’t mean extra work for me however, since a bank of computers would adjust our clients’ portfolios automatically when the news arrived. So I decided to devote some rare free time to trade my own money. With a stressful fulltime job, I was not a particularly active trader. But very occasionally, an opportunity came up that was too good to miss, this was one of them.

This week, we discuss the importance of process over outcome, how sports can be related to Trading, and whether mistakes are to be avoided completely or something we should look forward to learning from.  Questions answered this week include: is Ray Dalio’s suggestion of 15 uncorrelated return streams the ultimate way to diversify your portfolio?  Are some markets more tradable for Trend Followers than others? Is market ‘noise’ making it harder for Trend Followers, or is the volatility a good thing? How do you deal with strategic retirement decisions as a Trend Follower? Is it in a Hedge Fund’s best interests to stay relatively small and private? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 02:30 - Weekly review 10:15 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19 11:30 - Top tweets 40:30 - Question 1: Jack; When/how do you decide to change a losing TF system? 49:20 - Question 2: Werner; How do you decide not to add a specific market to a TF system? 57:15 - Question 3: Sam; Should investors decrease risk as they near retirement?, and if so...How? 1:24:30 - Discussion of noise vs volatility paper by Michele Cocchiglia & Stefan Martinek of Kelonia Capital Management: Deconstructing Noise - A closer look at the notion of noise, its definition and potential impact in today's market environment. 1:29:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

I get a lot of questions about ideas to help build the best Trading Model, and I understand why many aspiring managers feel that this is critical to their future success.  There is though, a lot of truth in the saying: “Most people overvalue ideas and underestimate execution".  What I mean by that is, when you want to start and build a business such as a Hedge Fund or CTA, I’m not so sure that the real challenge lies within the design of your investment approach.  Nowadays, I think that raising the initial funds from Seed or Early investors have actually become the biggest obstacle for new managers. This is something I have a long experience with, and this is why I wanted to focus on it, in today’s post.  So I thought that Kim Bang, who spent many years at a big firm like Bloomberg before starting his own CTA firm, is the perfect person to talk about this.  So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kim, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 77 & Episode 78. Growing from Family Clients to Institutional Investors Niels:  Sure. Let's jump to the next topic that I wanted to ask, and I know and realize that you're a small organization. But still, I do want to ask because clearly you have a huge amount of experience in building organizations and running them and so on and so forth. You fully understand what is required in the trading world, so how have you structured your so-called "organization" as it is today with the AUM you have right now? How do you do that and still make it attractive for investors, maybe even institutional investors, to take you seriously? Kim:  Right, so it's not easy, I would say, and I think the reality is, is that if you're going to try to make a go of this business, you need to have some money yourself that you can put up. So, I think that you need a few million dollars that you can put into the business yourself. Maybe you can go to a family member or two, and ask for 1 million or 2, and maybe you have a friend or a business associate from your prior life, and maybe they'll put up a couple of million bucks. So, if you can get out of the gate somewhere around 5, and even better around 10, but I think that's the minimum level where you have to start. I think that you probably can't expect to get any more money from any outside investors for probably the first 18 months. I would think 18 to 24 months is probably the first time, which is around where we are right now. We are getting more inquiries now than ever, and it's from, I would call them, early adopters - but institutional clients. These are probably institutional clients that I would classify as very knowledgeable about this particular industry. So they're very comfortable. They understand the underlying investment strategies, they're very comfortable with the type of trading activity that goes on in these markets, and they understand the risk associated with it and the volatility. "We've been fortunate. Our timing for the launch was pretty good. As I mentioned to you, we're annualizing a little over 19% so far, and our Sharpe Ratio is running around 2, which is very high for historical standards in this space." So, they really understand. They actually like to make investments around this time frame. I think the reason, as you mentioned in your opening commentary, is that we've done some research, and it's very easy to do when you look at the BTOP50 firms -there's about 20 of them in there. It's very clear to see, all of them had their best performance in the first say 3 to 5 years in business, and their average performance was around 20%, which is pretty outstanding. And, by the way, these firms, they launched at all different times, right? It's not like they all launched 30 years ago. Some were 30 years ago, some 20, some 10 years ago, right? So they were fairly well dispersed. But in common, they all had their best returns in their first years of ...

Is ‘Buy & Holding’ the S&P500 index the perfect investment strategy?  Should you apply Equal-Weighting across all of your Trading positions?  Are long-term strategies the only way to avoid market noise?  Also, we give our thoughts on why you should avoid ‘Fat-Tail Distributions', Volatility versus Risk, how Trend Following strategies tend to ‘melt-up’ rather than crash down, and our upcoming Systematic Investor Series Live Event. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:55 - Weekly review 6:30 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; 12 people 9:30 - Top tweets 52:20 - Question 1: Sam- Please discuss equal weighting positions. 1:00:30 - Performance update 1:01:50 - Final thoughts Subscribe on:

Regardless of the investment strategy that you apply to the markets, your strategy or approach needs to evolve over time.  The way we did Trend Following back in the 1970s, 1980s, & 1990s is not exactly the way we do it today, and I think this can be said about most, if not all strategies.  Now with some strategies, the model decay is so rapid, that if you don’t adapt quickly you can lose your edge.  I think short-term strategies are good examples of this.  Trend Following, being a longer-term strategy is, in my opinion, a lot slower when it comes to Model Decay… so you need to have been around for a really long time in order to have witnessed this evolution.   So when I looked through my list of guests to pull a few golden nuggets from on this theme, I thought that Marty Lueck, the co-founder of AHL and Aspect Capital would be the perfect person for this.  So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Marty, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 37 & Episode 38. How Trend Following Has Evolved Over Time Niels:  What has been the biggest changes over time and is it really small incremental changes, or is there something where you look back and you say in the last 15 years 2008, or 2009, or whatever it might be, we did actually discover something that we would say that was a big upgrade or that was a big find - key finding? Marty:  By and large it is very much an incremental process and we make a virtue of that because you don't want... the last thing we want to do, especially with our focus on institutional investors and a high level of transparency. The last thing you want to do is surprise an investor. With the benefit of hindsight, I highlight two particular features about the evolution of the approach. First, in an odd way... the first, Niels, is the importance of risk management and portfolio construction. I think this is something that investors and maybe managers that haven't been doing it for that long may underestimate the importance of this in the process, and again I'm saying this because I did (laugh). After all of the shenanigans of looking at Chartism and distilling it down into to so fundamental tech models, you come up with a pretty robust diversified set of medium term trend following models, or we did anyway. The neat thing, in the 1980s was the range of markets that have sprung up around us, Niels, afforded us a level of diversification that essentially... the combination of trend following across that range of markets it risk managed itself. You didn't have correlated risk shocks. You didn't have ... there was enough intrinsic diversification that if one sector was melting down you'd have opportunities in another sector. Risk management...I couldn't spell risk at the time. Then a couple of things happen. First of all (I'm going to foreshorten this) you got to an era where I think some of those trend following models became less efficient. You go to an era where markets did become more homogenous, so there's both a sort of macro effect as your pension fund manager in Japan begins to hold a similar looking portfolio to your pension fund manager in Sacramento. Whereas, once upon a time they didn't, it was much more parochial. ''You got to an era where markets did become more homogenous, so there's a sort of macro effect, as your Pension Fund manager in Japan begins to hold a similar looking portfolio to your Pension Fund manager in Sacramento" You begin to get a greater coherence of both investor holdings and then also with the advent of VaR metrics and that approach to risk management, you also got a more correlated response to events, so that everyone around the world who thought they were doing independent things would react in the same way to an event. In response to those kinds of increasing correlations in the markets and increasing propensity for shock effects we - both Aspect and as an industry,

In today’s episode, we discuss whether or not Trend Following is more effective with Volatility Targeting, how cautious you should be of outlier events, how to use stress-levels as an indicator of how good your trading strategy is, and we give our thoughts on the concept of ‘Risk of Ruin’, in relation to the plight of Long-Term Capital management in the late 1990s.  Questions this week include: Should you trade in a style that suits your personality?  Can 10 years of financial data still be classified as ‘noise’?  Should the fundamental causes of market movements affect how you trade?  Should you reduce your position in a trade if it goes in your direction far quicker than expected?  We also touch on Howard Mark’s comments regarding the skill of catching a ‘falling knife’. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

Today, we discuss how to go from managing personal money to third-party money, in this current regulatory environment. We clear up some confusion surrounding the VIX market, touch on stocks vs commodities & how they affect on Trend Following strategies differently, as well as how to avoid a single driver from overly correlating your portfolio.  We also answer the questions: how do you define long-term versus short-term?  Did Richard Dennis’s Turtles ever add to winning positions? Are CTAs underrepresented at investing conferences, and are investors losing out by only choosing the most common names? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

In today’s episode, we discuss how much central banks or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future.  We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if technology prevents Commodities from having bull runs like Equities have had in the last decade, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Weekly review 8:45 - Top tweets 37:30 - Question 1: Todd; What are your thoughts on adjusting stops based on price changes/volatility? 45:50 - Question 2: Paul; Have you considered the strength of a trend in your models? 53:05 - Question 3: Brian; How do you scale position sizes up and down based on performance? 1:02:15 - Questions 4/5/6: Sanjay; Aside from central bank (CB) action are there other reasons for the lack of trends in the last decade? If CB action is to blame and continues, will a lack of trends persist? What are indicators to watch to measure overall market trendiness? 1:22:45 - Question 7: George; What are your thoughts on data (back adjusting, roll methods, cleaning, etc.)? 1:30:15 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

"Over the years, I have allocated to a lot of short term CTAs… but due to the alpha decay factor to short-term models, not really made any money from it." - John Fidler (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri continues his conversation with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathan Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. Listen in as our guests talk about management fees and how they have changed over the past decade, the importance of constantly checking your assumptions, and what wisdom they would give to young up and coming investors. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: Why John and Jonathan don't spend much time looking at short-term CTAs How fee compression has changed management fees over the last decade When our guests choose discretionary over systematic managers The role of alternatives in a portfolio, and why Christopher doesn't call them alternatives "I would urge people to be cynical, and what I mean by that is Wall Street is about product creation, not about performance." - Christopher Vogt (Tweet) Why Christopher urges people interested in the investment space to be cynical Why in a world of complex models, John sees simplicity as a good thing The most important decisions in Jonathan's work, and why they aren't necessarily financial decisions Why many people's view of model risk can hurt them and their investments Why macro strategies will always remain strong This episode was sponsored by: Links Mentioned: The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios Connect with our guests: Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies "Everybody understands management and incentive fees. Let's just set it in such a way that investors feel it's fair." - Jonathan Miles (Tweet) Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Niels Welcome back to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group, where our guest host today, Ranjan Bhaduri, continues his conversation with Jonathan Miles, John Fidler and Christopher Vogt where they discuss how managed futures should fit into your portfolio allocation and why you should still believe in these strategies even if there have been a few challenging years. So without further ado, let's rejoin the conversation.  Ranjan So, going back to some of what Jonathan stated about risk premia and alternative beta, I agree that there are cheaper ways to get trend following today, and that has had an impact on the entire managed futures' fee structure, even including managers that are not doing trend following. It's also forcing a lot of trend followers to adapt or be left behind in terms of adapting, in terms of offering more competitive fees, and increasing their suite of products - so, new types of programs or trying to explore via other techniques.   The short-term CTAs (mentioning about the alpha decay) is also a very interesting comment there because that has lasted for... In some ways, the empirical evidence seems to suggest that short-term CTAs have a shorter lifespan than trend following CTAs. The corollary of that is that it might be more challenging in identifying a quality short-term CTA. From an investment lens, are any of you looking at short-term CTAs? If so, what are the kinds of things that you look for?   Jonathan

I often see the press write that too much money is chasing the same trends, and this being the reason that Trend Following strategies have been performing a little under par in the last few years.  So who better to ask if this really is true, than my friend Kathryn Kaminski, who of course co-wrote the bible on Trend Following with Alex Greyserman… as well as a book with me, that you can find on my website.  We also discussed how they conducted their research for their book, where they went back a very long time to test if Trend Following models really do work over centuries of data… so I think you will find this part of particular interest.  I hope you enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 & Episode 42. Return of the Trend: 'It's all about Correlation' Niels:  I had a question the other day from someone here based in Switzerland, Roman, in fact, and he asked about people's perception about Trend Following that perhaps it's performed poorly in the last couple of years because there's been too much money chasing Trend Following after the great year of 2008. When you hear something like that, what comes to mind? Katy:  Well, I actually just wrote an article which is coming out for Eurex on this exact topic, and I call it Return of the Trend: It's All About Correlation. I'll just give you a view on this. If you look at a Trend Following system, any portfolio system in general, we depend on correlation. We depend on the diversification across markets, and regardless of looking at the capacity in the industry, not even thinking about that, if you take a graph of correlations pre in the last twenty years, it almost looks like a step function. So up until 2008 the correlations are pretty low across all futures markets, and they just shot through the roof in 2008 and they stayed there until earlier this year, or until late 2013. If you think about portfolio construction, the returns of Trend Following is driven by divergence and we've had some divergence over this period of time: quantitative easing, all sorts of events like the nuclear meltdown in Japan, those are diversion events, but in this sharp ratio is also the diversification and the risk. When you construct a portfolio, it's not only the volatility, which has been low, but also the correlation across assets that allows you to have proper diversification. Correlation being high means diversification is low, which means that even though there maybe some trends, there's a lot of risk because it's sort of like a one trade world. If you look at that, that coincides with a period that has been difficult for Trend Following strategies. So they do have profits in some areas, but there was just not enough diversification across their portfolio I think to support their performance as consistent with history. Niels:  Sure, sure. The next area I want to talk about is what usually is the trading program, but today, in our conversation it will be about the trading strategy or the model, however  you phrase it, that you've used in your study that really represents the performance over this long period. Tell me about how you and Alex constructed this and feel free to go into as much detail as you want. Katy:  OK, yeah, this is a very important and good question, Niels. One of the chapters of our book that I'm most excited about is actually chapter 3, and this is one called Systematic Trend Following Basics. I found that when I looked at most other books on trend following, and those sort of descriptions, it's very hard to find a specific formula that you could use as "this is the formula" for Trend Following.  So what we did, instead, is we tried to create a framework with one formula. '..we focus on creating one formula for Position Sizing, which is a function of several key variables." This one formula obviously,

This week, we invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles.  Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes.  He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio.  We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an effect on the size of his positions. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert & @WayneHimelsein And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Subscribe on:

"Not all managed future strategies are created equal." - John Fidler (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri speaks with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathon Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. With these experts on managed futures, we will discuss how managed futures is being incorporated into institutional portfolios, illiquid versus liquid investments, and what role alternative investments play in today's investment landscape. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: What managed future strategies John sees the more successful managers gravitating towards Why diversification isn't always the best idea, and what alternative strategies Jonathan recommends The advantages and disadvantages of having illiquid versus liquid investments "What is proven in behavioral finance is that people tend to underestimate the value of liquidity." - Ranjan Bhaduri (Tweet) The heuristic crutch of private equity Why Christopher is wary to always choose emerging managers over more established ones The importance of a strong operational due diligence in managing portfolios "Quant processing is so cheap. We can all buy computers for almost nothing, and I think that might make it much more challenging as we go forward, given that there's so much easy and inexpensive quant processing to search for anomalies or alpha opportunities." - Christopher Vogt (Tweet) How trend following will need to evolve amid machine learning and changing markets How Jonathan's risk premia strategies transformed how his firm looked at managed futures This episode was sponsored by: Links Mentioned: The Impact of Crowding in Alternative Risk Premia Investing Hedge Funds Are Not an Asset Class: Implications for Institutional Portfolios Connect with our guests: Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies "Diversification for the sake of diversification isn't actually worth it for us." - Jonathon Miles (Tweet) Full Transcript The following is a full detailed transcript of this conversion. Click here to subscribe to our mailing list, and get full access to our library of downloadable eBook transcripts! Niels Welcome back to another edition of Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures. My name is Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and I’m delighted to welcome you to today’s conversation with industry leaders and pioneers in managed futures brought to you by CME Group.  Your guest host today is Ranjan Bhaduri, founder, President, and CEO of Bodhi Research Group and he’s joined by three very interesting guests to discuss how managed futures should fit into your portfolio allocation and the role alternative investments play in today’s investment landscape. So, without further ado, here is Ranjan.  Ranjan Thank you so much, Niels, and I also thank CME Group. This is a very big honor, and we have excellent panelists for this podcast. I’m going to allow each of the panelists to quickly introduce themselves, starting with Jonathan Miles.  Jonathan Hi, Ranjan. Thank you very much for having me on this podcast today. My name is Jonathan Miles, and I’m a Managing Director with Ascent Private Capital Management down in our Southern California office. Essentially, I am a family CIO for ultra-high net worth families. I have a background in manager due diligence and portfolio construction across alternatives for the last ten plus years at various consulting firms. I specialized in relative value and global macro strategies in that role.  Ranjan Excellent, thank you. John Fidler?  John Hey yeah,

Are CTAs giving the wrong message by charging low performance fees? Is there a perfect amount of AUM to aim for?  Can Systematic Trading keep you happy?  How accurately can we predict future returns?  We discuss whether Trend Following  is easy enough to do at home, or if you should do it through a reputable fund instead.  What sort of things can be found in a ‘Research Graveyard’?  Should you use Stop Losses, and if so, how and where should you place them?  We answer the question of what makes a strategy robust, as well as how to avoid over-complicating a Trading System. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:00 - Weekly review 5:55 - Top tweets 50:00 - Announcement: Next week’s guest Wayne Himelsein 50:50 - Question 1: George; What are the operational realities of running a TF business? 56:55 - Question 2+: Craig; Please discuss the research that didn’t become part of the system. 1:02:20 - Question 3+: Carl; Series of questions about stop loss mechanics (initial, ATR, trailing, etc.) 1:10:15 - Question 4+: Michael; What are your thoughts on variable count in robust systems? Do you tailor models to specific markets/sectors? 1:24:40 - Question 5: Uncle Mike; What works best for stops? 1:28:25 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you'll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense.  But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing.  This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington.  We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model.  So enjoy these unique insights from Scot, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 25 & Episode 26. The Long side vs the Short side Niels:  Now, track record...we've touched a little bit upon the track record. What I'd love to do is to ask you how one should read your track record because we all know that strategies evolve over time, and, therefore, in a sense, one could say that actually a track record...sure it shows that you survived. It shows that you have had some innovation, but I think sometimes people maybe get fooled to believe that a track record is a great indication of what the future is going to look like because they really don't know what changes have happened along the way in the model. So in some ways one could say that maybe it's better to look at the backtest of the current model when you look at a manager, maybe that would say more about the future, I don't know, but I'd love to hear about what your view and what your observation is about your own track record, because you mentioned the short side of things, and I know there was a period where I think you didn't take any short trades at all, so I'd love to hear your philosophical view about short trades, because I don't think many people realize that there is a big difference between the long side and the short side in terms of success and profitability, but also generally maybe putting that into context about your own track record and why you made the changes along the way? Scot:  Well I think you make an excellent point about track records. I think people look at them as some kind of a one loss record in a sporting event, and they miss the enormous amounts of variance and randomness that happened to have lined up and occurred to produce whatever monthly return is shown, or daily return. I think that most groups don't do enough qualitative analysis of the trading method, and simply crunch performance numbers as though they're the end all be all of what the future is going to be. You make an interesting point. I would probably argue that a backtest of the current running model is probably the best, except that it is also going to...if you are hoping to be a 5 or 10 year investor, there're going to be future changes. And so what I might say is, as we've progressed, our changes have been successful, and therefore perhaps one would conclude that our future changes would also be successful. That's a different discussion. Our first major change to the model was in early 2002, was basically eliminating short trades and using a volatility filter for long trades. 'Niels: So why did you make a change to eliminate Short trades back in 2002? Scot: Well, a Short trade is bounded by zero, so it's going to face several hurdles' Niels:  Were the short trades the cause of your drawdown back in the beginning? Scot:  No, no. Niels:  So why did you make a change to eliminate short trades back in 2002? Scot:  Well, short trades, and this is particularly appropriate in our timeframe, on a shorter timeframe I don't think this would not hold as much. Let's imagine in our timeframe we're trying to hold a good winner for, let's say over a year. A short trade is bounded...

Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all emotions from the process?  Is it wise to use Stop-Losses?  Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility?  Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art?  Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same?  We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade.  Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Weekly review 5:30 - Top tweets 1:12:00 - Questions 1&2: John; If a trade signal comes just before a roll date, do you move the roll forward to avoid trading twice? Do you ever try to “game” a roll to make a profit? 1:17:30 - Question 3: Michael; When the system designer and the executive are not the same person, how does the executive have confidence in the system/work of the system designer? 1:23:30 - Performance recap   Subscribe on:

Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy.  Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this.  Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are 'short volatility' strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets.  So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 & Episode 42. Is Trend Following just a hedge for bad Equity markets? Niels:  Absolutely. Now, I want to stick with the cover of your book and especially the last part of the title: The Search for Crisis Alpha. Now, I know you are responsible for coining this term ‘Crisis Alpha’ and I want to talk to you about this. Before I do so, I also want to offer a slight concern that I have about the perception of the role of Trend Following in a crisis and it goes something like this. The way I see Trend Following being positioned, and this is not new. This is something that has happened for many, many years. It's kind of a hedge against equity markets if and when they run into trouble, and that always gets labeled as we're in some kind of crisis and that's obviously where the crisis alpha is linked to, but there are far more bonds than equities in the portfolios of investors and I never really hear any debate about trend following as "a hedge, or a protection" against periods where bonds might run into trouble. Especially in a time where bond prices are, to say the least, very high, how do you think about that and is there a concern that when we hear the word 'Crisis Alpha' and trend following, that people automatically think that this is relating to equities? Katy:  So now going back to your point about bonds and commodities. That's something that really bothered me as well, because I kept getting that question all the time. So in the book we talked about crisis alpha for commodity indices. We talked about bond crisis alpha. We talk about commodity crisis alpha, but over the course of writing this book I actually had moved more towards a new idea, and this is the idea of divergence. What we do in the book is we explain that trend following strategies are long divergence. What that means is that the most divergent moment in history is always crisis, wherever it comes from. Yeah, so crisis alpha is part of that. That's extreme divergence. The story is a little bit more clear to me now that it's really about being long divergence in markets, and divergence can be driven by many things. The reason that equity is the central point is that most of us have a home biased equity markets. Our focal point from an emotional standpoint, are equity markets, so they have a little bit more impact on the psychology of the general marketplace, and that's why they can be more extreme, but they're in no way the only thing that drives divergence. "Convergent risk-taking strategies are used when we believe that the world is somewhat stable, knowable, understandable, and quantifiable.  Divergent on the other hand.." Niels:  Sure. I want to talk about the convergent and divergent strategies, and I'd love for you to explain this, but I have to say, I think certainly that many investors are perhaps not... and maybe we don't have enough data, but it will be interesting to see how trend following may actually also be very, very useful in a period where we get a massive crisis in the bond markets, which, on a personal note,

Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:45 - Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder 6:45 - Weekly review 11:00 - Top tweets 32:20 - Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested? 41:00 - Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system? 46:30 - Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using 'blue chip' managed futures mutual funds? 1:07:30 - Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios? 1:15:50 - Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps? 1:19:30 - Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees? 1:26:50 - Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a trade? 1:31:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Often, a Trend following strategy is described as being a 'Black Box', as if something bad was going on.  So it was refreshing to hear Scott Foster talk about Trend Following as being in fact, a 'White Box', or a 'Transparent Box', in comparison to other algorithmic strategies, which are often embraced by investors to a much larger degree... so I’m delighted to share this blog post with you, from a conversation I had with Scott Foster, where he also touched on the essential question: Why are there trends, and why ought there be trends in the future?If you would like to listen to the full conversation just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 27 and Episode 28. Will Trends Always Exist In The Market? Niels:  But that was a very important explanation and it ties into so many other things and want to go further than this but I want to actually ask you a question that actually doesn't relate to short-term trading, but it's my kind of trying to understand what it is you are saying and putting it into a slightly different perspective and that relates to more generally speaking about trend following because, obviously, as we know, you mentioned 1994 and I remember seeing all the great guys sitting lined up at a conference in Chicago and talking about a very difficult period, but they were convinced that this was just a difficult period and things would come back. But let me ask you this, trends in markets in general, not necessarily short term, but just generally, is that kind of based on universal truth, because at the end of the day trends reflect human behavior and human behavior will never change, and what we are seeing now then, where perhaps there have been a lack of trends for a period of time is just part of a normal cycle. Scott:  Absolutely. I often express my- I won't say unhappiness, but, I think trend followers could do a much better job of explaining what they're doing. Everybody seems to want to be a scientist. There's nothing wrong with that it's just that...I gave a talk a few years ago in Monaco on this about the difference between what we would call black box and what I would call white box. I was trying to make a differentiation between some forms of systematic trading and some forms of systematic/algorithmic trading and the fact that the best majority of people outside, they're in the alternative industry and won't invest in systematic strategy because they don't feel like they have the expertise to understand them or the mathematical skills to, and I was trying to make a case that, well, as it pertains to the vast majority of managed futures, they're not black box, and the reason being is what are they going after? I tried to make a case that they're going after a universal. When you ask a trend follower why do you make money? If they start talking about formulas and all of this type of stuff, the question is (really the only way they can make money is if there are trends)...the question is why are there trends and why ought there to be trends in the future? A trend follower asked, how are you going to make money in the future? I think they should respond because trends cannot not exist. 'If a Trend Follower is asked, how are you going to make money in the future? I think they should respond: 'because Trends cannot not exist.'' What exactly in particular does that mean? Well, it's what you said, it's the fact that at least in a free society, markets exist to create efficiencies for the greater good and if the price of wheat...if we start running out of wheat, the price has to go higher...it has to ration the remaining supply, it has to ration the remaining demand, it has to increase the supply. It has to incentivize people to plant more wheat because we are running out of it and if we didn't have... futures markets were created for that purpose, and without them the prices of food would be fluctuating all over the place. At the end of the day, there are inefficiencies that you can arbitrage out of t...

In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast.  Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold.  We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him?  Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Weekly review 5:20 - Jesse reviews his background/influences 8:00 - Jesse describes his process 12:45 - Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market? 19:30 - Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing 25:40 - Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing 28:00 - Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing 30:10 - Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing 34:40 - Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes 36:50 - Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails Book reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel 40:10 - Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification 42:00 - Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following 47:20 - Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF 50:00 - Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)? 56:20 - Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla 1:00:20 - Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day 1:01:30 - Niels asks what Jesse is reading now 1:03:20 - Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies 1:04:40 - Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today 1:08:45 - Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets 1:11:50 - Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing 1:14:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

  "This is where the populism intercedes with the market risks. I think people look at these risks as independent risks, so they're not looking at them and how they interrelate with the ecosystem of financial products, as well." - Chris Cole (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group and the Managed Funds Association, where guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Chris Cole, the Founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO of MAN AHL at Man Group, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. Our guests today go over the changing markets and why despite trend following's recent underperformance, their clients still look to it as protection for their portfolio. They will also continue their discussion on the intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing, as well as the relationship between corporate debt and GDP and its long term trends. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How the recent quantitative easing could be moving into quantitative tightening, and what that means for investors The intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing How opportunities in the markets are changing managers behavior "I think big institutions are so hedge fatigued, that they don't want to pay up for volatility of volatility. They are essentially saying, 'why do I need to buy fire insurance when the FED will put out my fire for me?'." - Chris Cole (Tweet) Why Matthew is happy with the current market environment Which asset classes currently offer a cheap volatility What the recent huge spikes in VIX meant for long vol and short vol traders "Is there a strategy out there that still gives you a positive expectation but has a meaningful negative correlation? Because it's so hard to find negative correlation in the hedge fund world or in the investment world more broadly right now." - Dan Stone (Tweet) Who in the investing space is looking for the protection of hedging for their portfolio Why trend following is still successful despite it's recent difficulties in the market The meaning of the recent change of Growth outperforming Value This episode was sponsored by CME Group and Managed Funds Association:   Connect with our guests: Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital "It's going to be a wonderful time to make opportunity from change, as opposed to the last 10 years, which has been trying to squeeze juice out of a short vol trade." - Chris Cole (Tweet)

On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’?  Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle 'parabolic moves' better. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 2:00 - Weekly review 6:30 - Top tweets 34:40 - Question 1: Michael; Have any of you backtested 2009 trades onward with one size fits all position sizing? 47:15 - Question 2: Dave; What represents too much open risk as a percentage of AUM? 56:55 - Question 3: Brian; How does a Trend Following system trade a parabolic market? 1:06:15 - Question 4: George; What are the commandments of Trend Following you reference in earlier episodes? 1:10:00 - Question 5: George; Could Moritz discuss why he dislikes a simple Trend Following system on just the S&P 500 when Meb Faber’s research shows it is effective. 1:12:40 - Question 6: George; Is Jerry’s infrequent overall risk reduction built into his system? 1:15:10 - Question 7: George; Most Trend Followers use stops, why doesn’t DUNN? 1:19:10 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

  "I think the idea is that the math of quantitative easing really matters. It's all about the shift at the margin." - Dan Stone (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group and the Managed Funds Association. On today's episode, which took place at the MFA's Network 2019 conference in Miami, guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO of MAN AHL at Man Group, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we'll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analytics The state of the market now and where it is headed in the future Why Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatility "I think this period where we've had excessively low volatility driven by central bank quantitative easing and expansion of the monetary base has resulted in a build up in many of these strategies, and presents both an opportunity and a risk to the system." - Matthew Sargaison (Tweet) The hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populism Dan's "top five longball macro themes" and what we can learn from them Where Matthew sees opportunities in volatility today "What's the biggest risk to markets? It's if markets get the sense that central banks have lost control." - Dan Stone (Tweet) What it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World's Central Banks Why you don't have to put your "end-of-the-world" hat on...just yet This episode was sponsored by CME Group and Managed Funds Association:   Connect with our guests: Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital "You do not create 15 trillion dollars out of thin air supporting the longest bull market in history and expect to wind that back without some disruption in risk assets. That is the dominant macro theme going forward." - Chris Cole (Tweet)

Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up.  Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can Trend Following be used as a timing tool?  What is the best sample size and look-back period when testing a system? You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:35 - Weekly review 5:30 - Top tweets 24:30 - TF needs a better slogan than “crisis alpha” – listeners are welcome to write in. 39:20 - Question 1: Antonio; How should TF work with traditional 60/40 stock/bond investing (and more on the podcast)? 56:20 - Question 2: Kevin; When backtesting do you have a preferred definition of what was and was not a trend or do you apply discretion? 1:03:50 - Announcement: Guest Jesse Felder coming on the show in a few weeks 1:04:35 - Performance recap Paper Reference 1 - https://www.ahl.com/strategic-rebalancing Paper Reference 2 - https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-Investing Paper Reference 3 - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3050736 Subscribe on:

Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use?  Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size?  Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes. Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 01:35 - Weekly review 6:15 - Top tweets 29:35 - Question 1: Antonio; How do you determine if your Trend Following model is broken? 45:00 - Question 2: Seth; How does Jerry diversify his single stock portfolio? 47:20 - Question 3: Dave; Could you discuss specific details of your systems? 48:15 - Question 4/5/6: Carlos; How does Jerry trade single stock futures given liquidity? What is your opinion on using alternative data for position sizing/signal generation? What is your opinion on adjusting position sizes using momentum/pyramiding/etc.? 58:20 - Question 7: Walter; What exchange does Jerry use to trade single stock futures/where is the liquidity? 1:03:30 - Question 8: Brian; Do you use options strategies? If so would you discuss your strategies? 1:09:50 - Question 9: Glen; Please discuss your execution process once a system provides a signal. 1:15:00 - Question 10/11: Keith; If establishing a new system, do you put on all positions as of a specific date or sit in cash waiting for new entry signals? How do you adjust positions when new money comes in? 1:19:50 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Would you believe somebody if they told you they had been very successful in the investment world, by looking at the just markets once a week? Everything, and everyone, seems to be getting increasingly more short-term in their nature, so it seems counter-intuitive that you can run an actively managed trading strategy by only checking for new signals once a week. Nevertheless, this is exactly what Scot Billington and his partners have done. When I spoke to Scot a while back, he shared some great stories and real-life experiences, that had led him and his partners to this realization, and ultimately, their unique way of implementing a Trend Following approach. I’m excited to share some of these key takeaways with you today. I hope you enjoy this short post, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 25, and also Episode 26. Will Trend Following work forever?  Is there a risk that the Markets can fundamentally change? Niels:  It's a slightly different topic than where we started, but I think it's an important one, so I'd like to explore it a little bit. Although you probably know that my bias is also that I think trend following is a highly robust and sustainable strategy. If I was going to take the opposite side of the discussion here, and that is because we obviously hear the argument every time that people say, oh trend following is dead and out comes the veterans of the industry saying, yeah, we've heard this before, and it never comes true, but we also know that decompression or compression of volatility is not great for trend followers and we have to admit, maybe with you as one of the exceptions, but we have to admit that some of the people who have been around for 20 or 30 years have significantly larger drawdowns in the past few years than they have seen in their 30 year career. Some of them have even folded and stopped because they thought it was getting too difficult. The question is, of course, can one always argue and say yeah, sure it's going to come back, it's going to be fine, or is there as you alluded to before, is there always the risk that the markets, or that something has actually fundamentally changed? I'm not saying I'm a strong believer here, I'm just saying.. Scot:  In the midst of any drawdown, that will always be a great and valid question, and I always start by saying look, I don't know the future. I can make my best guess. I can argue vehemently that my guess is very rational, but just because something has worked doesn't mean that it will work forever across any board. We would be out of business long before there was enough physical evidence to suggest that trend following didn't work. If you took the position today that trend following doesn't work, that would be an extraordinarily irrational statement because the empirical evidence before you strongly suggests that it does. Niels:  Yet a lot of investors take that stand. Scot:  Of course, they do, but they bought tons of collateralized debt obligations, right? Niels:  So they did, yeah. Scot:  I mean hundreds of trillions of dollars of them. They ran models that didn't even have an assumption possibility of a real estate price going down. Again it's easy to pick on things in retrospect, but we also bought lots of Enron stock, didn't we? 'Your largest drawdown is always in front of you... but there will also always be a winning period better than we've ever seen.' Niels:  But if we talk about evidence and I think we both agree that certain market environments are not good for trend following and certainly compression of volatility is one of them. Scot:  In our stuff volatility is bad. You want volatility post-trade entry, not pre. So volatility pre-trade entry is bad. Ultimately, volatility tends to increase as a trend increases, so I think people have, for years, (now I have not studied this so this is a hypothesis of mine)...

Discussion points this week include: Where to start if you want to become a Trend Following Trader, whether or not to trade markets differently, Bloomberg’s article on the supposed Failing of Trend Following, how strategies can cope and adapt during drawdowns, how to know when you are truly diversified or not, and a lot more. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:20 -  Weekly review 7:00 - Top tweets 32:30 - Question 1: Karl; Where would you start if you wanted to become a Trend Follower? 36:30 - Question 2/3: Paul; Considering return volatility and investor tolerance, how do you help investors determine their optimal allocation to Trend Following? Have your personal volatility preferences changed over time? 45:45 - Question 4: Antonio; If historical drawdowns have no bearing on the future (as the podcast has said), how do you know your system won’t blow up? 50:10 - Question 5: Antonio; How do you calculate future expected returns with a TF system? 55:20 - Question 6: Antonio; If you can’t estimate future returns, why bet TF will keep working in the future? 59:30 - Question 7: Antonio; Should recent performance of TF systems influence future return expectations? 1:03:10 - Question 8: Brian; How does a CTA choose a company to sell their products? 1:05:00 - Question 9/10: Samuel; Based on correlation, what level of diversification is enough? What will cause Jerry to adjust his risk? 1:09:00 - Question 11: Samuel; How often should positions be adjusted based on account equity? 1:15:15 - Question 12: Brian; Why do investors hold CTA returns to a higher standard (versus other hedge funds)? 1:18:50 - Question 13: Seth; What are the unique “sectors” that drive diversification in a TF system? 1:22:40 - Discussion of Bloomberg article on TF failing – suggested by Christian 1:35:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

"There's a lot more data in some ways, but there is also a lot less interesting information that is differentiated." - Jake Barton (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group and the Managed Funds Association, where host Niels Kaastrup-Larsen continues his conversation with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas, which took place at the MFA's Network 2019 conference in Miami. Listen in to learn when our guests use investment theory versus data, new standards for management fees, and what our guests look for in maintaining a reliable team for their investors. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: When to use investment theory versus data, and how you know when you have chosen correctly How the guests review their managers and analyze their results What organizations of different sizes can do to prepare for a crisis "In the end, I'll make anyone a deal: I will always admit you're right if I can have the money." - Trent Webster (Tweet) How Steven sees the new fee structure for hedge funds, that TRS helped develop, as more reasonable than the standard 2&20 How a race to the bottom for management fees can remove much of the creative energy from the alternative manager space What excites Trent about the BBB section of the investment grade bond market "It's almost unbelievable that it's 2019 and people are still paying performance fees on beta. How did that happen?" - Steven Wilson (Tweet) What is new and upcoming in the hedge fund space The reading that our guests never miss inside and outside of the investment space This episode was sponsored by CME Group and Managed Funds Association: Connect with our guests: Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus Holdings Learn more about Trent Webster and State Board of Administration of Florida Learn more about Steven Wilson and Teacher Retirement System of Texas "Data will always challenge the theory. No theory works if it's wrong financially. You can have the greatest theory in the world and if you just keep losing money for clients, you have to throw in the towel or the money will all disappear." - Jake Barton (Tweet)

Meb Faber joins the show to discuss his journey into Trend Following, where Trend Following funds have gone wrong in terms of attracting assets & growing AUM, why he started his company Cambria Investments and the difficulties that this involved, the perceived safety of US Treasuries, Mutual Funds vs ETFs, and a lot more. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Meb, Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @MebFaber, @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes. Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Weekly review 6:25 - Meb Faber’s backstory 10:15 - Jerry question: Why don’t CTAs have more AUM? 11:25 - Meb answer: Relates to branding/marketing; The word “futures” scares people; Allocator career risk in not following the herd plays a role (they don’t allocate much to CTAs) 16:50 - Mortiz question: When and why did you start your firm? 17:25 - Meb answer: See podcast 21:00 - Moritz question: Why do you think TF and value is a great blend? 21:50 - Meb answer: Best portfolio structure for the long-term. 28:00 - Niels question: Please talk about the perceived safety of US Treasuries (based on your research) and why you use a broader portfolio. 29:10 - Meb answer: See podcast 36:20 - Niels question: What needs to happen before Betterment (and others) embrace TF? 37:00 - Meb answer: A crisis or bear market could create interest; having US stocks stopped “working” for buy and hold could bring change as well (ex, Japanese stocks) 40:15 - Mortiz question: Why did you set up an ETF vs a mutual fund or another vehicle? 41:00 - Meb answer: I’m product (vehicle) agnostic but ETFs are vastly more tax efficient for equities (only for equities) 50:00 - Jerry question: What needs to happen for mutual funds to be competitive with ETFs (tax wise)? 50:20 - Meb answer: See podcast 53:00 - Niels question: With ETFs do you have to disclose your trading methodology? 53:25 - Meb answer: No, but you do have to disclose holdings daily. 57:00 - Jerry question: What do you think of products designed for client desires/tolerances compared to optimally designed pure TF products? 57:30 - Meb answer: Framing plays a large role in investor reception/adoption. 1:02:30 - Jerry question: What is your opinion on active mgmt = discretionary & index = systematic? 1:03:30 - Meb answer: See podcast 1:11:30 - Niels points listeners to Meb’s podcast with Chris Cole for more on this topic 1:12:30 - Niels questions: What are your favorite factors? How is your competition going with Patrick O’Shaughnessy? 1:18:20 - Meb answers: Value, momentum, and trend. Wants simple, timeless, and universal. See podcast re O’Shaughnessy answer. 1:19:30 - Mortiz question: Do you trade any vol products? 1:19:40 - Meb answer: Not really 1:25:45 - Jerry question: Why isn’t there a distinction between the good (full trading systems) and bad (market timing indicators) parts of systems trading in articles? 1:26:30 - Meb answer: It is in the framing. Investors need a plan (indicator isn’t a plan). The media likes the boogeyman of market timing. 1:30:45 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

"Being a mid-twenties analyst during the 2008 financial crisis was a very eye opening experience, and it showed me the importance of being methodical and critical, and not quick to make decisions whenever you're faced with adversity in investing." - Steven Wilson (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group and the Managed Fund Association. On today's episode, which took place at the MFA's Network 2019 conference in Miami, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. As managers of the investment of pensions and alternative portfolios, our guests today get in depth on how they use trend following to improve their client's capital, from interpersonal strategies in choosing a portfolio, how the funding status of a pension can affect a board's strategy, and what guides them in making the choices they do for their holdings. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How the guests got their start in investing Trent's philosophy for choosing his investments What Jake looks for when working with managers "There is a pension crisis coming in this country, probably sometime in the next decade or so, and there's going to have to be some hard decisions made." - Trent Webster (Tweet) The core beliefs and principles that drive each of the guest's decisions How the funding level of the pension fund can change investment decisions The varying degrees of differentiation and how it changes with the markets "That's something we spent quite a bit of time on, is 'what is our philosophy?' and 'how do we want to be good stewards of the capital our clients trust us with?'." - Jake Barton (Tweet) Why our guests are firmly committed to trend following even after a few years of lower returns Why convincing boards to invest in a hedge fund can be so difficult This episode was sponsored by CME Group and Managed Funds Association: Connect with our guests: Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus Holdings Learn more about Trent Webster and State Board of Administration of Florida Learn more about Steven Wilson and Teacher Retirement System of Texas "It takes us a while to maneuver, but when asset markets come down, we've started to look through the valley and start planning what we want to do into the bear market." - Trent Webster (Tweet)

What is the value of the 200-day Moving Average, the benefit of tried and tested strategies vs new and trendy strategies?  Are drawdowns a necessary component of a robust strategy, and what is the optimum startup capital? These, and a lot more we discuss this week. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes. Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 00:45 - Announcement: Meb Faber will be on the show next week please send questions 01:50 - Weekly review 06:40 - Top tweets 19:00 - Question 1: Alfred; What are some filters to increase the accuracy of breakouts? 25:25 - Question 2/3: Walter; Do you use volume as a signal in your systems? I’ve heard you mention more volatile systems are more robust, please explain why. 41:00 - Question 4: Paul; Please discuss big data, market predictions, and the relationship to TF. 47:40 - Question 5: Robert; Are Chesapeake’s single stock positions being traded via futures or cash equities? 50:00 - Question 6/7/8: Chris; Why don’t more TF use single stocks? Do you put on positions the day of the signal or wait until end of week (or similar)? How do you think about stop losses in a portfolio? 1:02:20 - Question 9: Matt; What needs to happen for investors to embrace TF like you all have? 1:09:30 - Question 10/11: Peter-Francois; How do you handle existing positions and inflows/outflows of capital? Do you adjust stop loss levels when new investors come in to existing positions? 1:14:30 - Question 12: Francois; What is your take on factor investing such as value and momentum?   1:26:30 - Question 13: Alex; How would you trade $20k vs $20mm? 1:31:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

The concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman.  Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book. I hope you enjoy reading this, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 and Episode 42. Examples of Trend Following from 800 Years of Historical Data Katy:  I think if I go back, for just a second, this concept of Trend Following is something that has been passed on throughout the ages. I think we start our book by saying find a trend and follow it, is a common adage that has been passed on throughout the centuries. This is quite, sort of, one of the points that we begin the book with, is that people have been using and following the curve, following the crowd for as long as anybody ever has imagined. Essentially trend following is simply following a trend that you may see. If you look across history, this particular approach, if done the right way, can actually be very stable over time. That's what we see in the beginning of the book, is there's an 800 year analysis. Granted that any of these analysis are not empirically hardcore research, but they give us some perspective on, "wait a minute, is this something that I could have done throughout the ages?" I think if you take that, and you think about what trend following is about: trend following is about following something that looks like it's going up and cutting your losses when you think it's not. It's very simple. Granted the way that we do it today is much more sophisticated, and much more systematic and sophisticated, but the concept is really simple. Niels:  Sure. I think that, in a sense, that's quite interesting to me because I think sometimes managers over complicate the message of trend following because they want to sound like that what they do is really sophisticated, but in reality it's not that hard. Katy:  Definitely not. I think I spent a lot of my research time thinking about stop loss, and why do people use stopping rules, for example? There's a lot of behavioral reasons for this, and trend following is exactly the same. You create some systematic rules to help you control your behavior - to help you make decisions. So for something like stop loss, as an example, we use a stop loss because we know that we may not be able to get ourselves to stop the loss without making the decision a priority. Trend following strategies, and the concept of trend following is about creating a simple set of rules - a simple heuristic for how do you actually profit from moves - up or down? If they exist, how do you handle them? So when we started our book, actually, one of the interesting graphs... the first graph that we have is actually performance of the S&P 500 for the last twenty odd years, and then performance of trend following. If you just look at that graph, there clearly are trends. Long trends that exist in history and different markets. So if we have that approach, there may be some ways to develop heuristics to help us to handle the ups and the downs over time. "What if I was the type of person that just said: if I see things that are going up in the last 12 months, I buy.  If I see things are going down, I sell.  Modern day Trend Following is much more complicated, but the concepts are the same." Niels:  I want to try and stay with the theme of the history and trend following and just ask you how did you find evidence of trend following taking place going back so many years? We obviously, many of us remember the last five, ten, twenty years, but once you get past that and for most investors we're not in the markets fifty years ago, or a hundred years ago, how did you observe or identify signs of trend following back then?

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes. Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 01:15 - Weekly review 06:10 - Top tweets 28:45 - Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall 38:25 - Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective? 44:00 - Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business? 51:00 - Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following? 58:10 - Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong? 1:11:15 - Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed? 1:17:40 - Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)? 1:30:20 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

A while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott.  If you would like to listen to the full conversation just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 27 and Episode 28. A Blend of Philosophy & Psychology in the Markets Scott:  I approach the whole trading situation from a real blend of philosophy and psychology. We've talked a little bit about the psychology stuff, not a lot, but the philosophy really to me was a bigger element, a bigger issue in terms of pushing me in a certain direction in how my trading is going to look and what I needed to do to support a particular style of trading. That goes back to it's a gradual process that's happening in those earlier years that I was talking about trading for myself and trading for this small trading group that I put together and then my experiences - my three years as a Senior Trader at A.L. Management. You go through this whole process and as the whole time I'm looking at what is my strategy? How do I want to approach the markets? What is my strength? What do I want to do? I kept having a problem reconciling all the different strategies that I was reading about. There was a certain philosophical hiccup in my brain that I could not get my arms around. What it was, was the fact that my background in philosophy is more geared toward ancient philosophy. My father got me turned on the Aristotle and Plato and the Socratics at an early age and he was my professor for a lot of my classes in college. I was either well educated or brainwashed; I'm not sure which perspective I want to take, but I had a real passion for the classics and Aristotelian logic in particular. So the markets that I'm looking at I'm thinking OK, how do I want to trade? I'm thinking do I want to be...it seemed to me it didn't matter what I picked. If I was going to trade the markets on a fundamental basis, I am basically saying that I am looking back in the past and I'm looking at certain fundamentals that would make something cheap or expensive or that's what everybody says, that this stocks to use ratio the price ought to be X, or when this happens, or whatever, if you are in the stock market, the PE ratio. "For my field of study, which is Epistemology - the theory of knowledge - how do you know you know? How can you validate or verify anything that you know, and what gives you any confidence in what you believe is true?" You are looking at all these different events in the past and you are saying this will tell me in the future what value is and what it ought to be. If I am a technical trader I am going to look at the past and say here's a head and shoulders pattern and most of the time if that happens in the past... I've counted 75 times that it's happened out of X it seems to point in the future that this is going to happen. Pick a strategy, any strategy, at the end of the day I ran into a real difficulty with trying to understand just because it's happened in the past why does that mean it's going to happen in the future? For my field of study, which is epistemology, which is the theory of knowledge - how do you know you know? How can you validate or verify anything that you know and what give you any confidence in what you believe is true? Niels:  So universal truth I guess. Scott:  Exactly and that's what Aristotle basically said. He basically invented logic as what everybody accepted for 2,000 years. Everybody has been debating over the last 100 years or so whether it was right or not. He said in classical logic and syllogistic logic that when we put these propositions together: all men are mortal, Socrates is a man therefore Socrates is mortal,

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 3:30 - Weekly review 14:00 -  Top tweets 26:55 - Question 1: Samuel; What is a good CTA trading cost hurdle rate? 34:10 Question 2: Samuel; Why do people say your biggest drawdown is always in front of you? 41:10 - Question 3: Michael; How much has your parameter set changed (and related questions)? 50:10 - Question 4: Francois; What do you know about Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons)? 56:30 - Miami conference review+TF thoughts 1:10:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

A few years back, I had a great discussion with die-hard Trend Follower, Scot Billington.  I would like to share some key moments with you, including how to perceive past track records, and also some of the differences between the long side and the short side.  If you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Episode 25. Deciding between Systematic and Discretionary Trading Scot:  ...I started putting together a trading model. In my opinion, they were three big picture decisions that somebody had to make when you talk about what kind of trader you are going to be. The first was discretionary or systematic and mechanical. So I would define discretionary as I bring in different inputs, whatever those inputs might be. I weigh them in a non-standard fashion, meaning that I don't weigh them necessarily the same way every time. I might bring in the same inputs, I might look at different ratios, but sometimes input A overwhelms input B, and sometimes input B might overwhelm input A. Regardless of what that might be, and then I would make the trade decisions in that fashion. Systematic I define as I do the exact same thing every time. I might argue that, if you have any discretion, then you are discretionary. So that even if I have a mechanical model, but I decide 7 times a year to override it, I suspect those seven times a year are going to be 7 of the more volatile and the larger outcome periods, and in essence you have a discretionary model, which is fine but you are a discretionary trader. "The primary reason that we wanted to be systematic is that we felt like we wanted the emotions taken out of the trading process." The reason that I and we have gone with systematic is three-fold. The first is that we wanted something that the efficacy of which could be at least estimated through historical modeling and backtesting and the like. So if I'm a discretionary trader, one of the difficulties that we found was how do I know that my theory is accurate? I think that XYZ, whatever XYZ is, it might make perfect sense, but what I have there is a good hypothesis that will be interesting to test, but I really have no method of testing it. Therefore, no way to prove that at least my idea had worked in the past. The second reason that we went with a more systematic model is that we felt that it would be much easier to apply to a wide variety of markets. If I was going to be..and that also ties into the inputs we might use...but if I were going to be discretionary, and I was attempting to trade the Yen and cotton, it would perhaps be very difficult to be an expert in both of those two markets. Now you could be discretionary and not necessarily have fundamental inputs, but that will be the second part of this answer. The primary reason that we wanted to be systematic is that we felt like we wanted the emotions taken out of the trading process. We wanted something that was repeatable, so that I could say the same decisions that I made in June of 2004 I'm going to make in December of 2018. It's the same process. It's a much more repeatable process than my weighing all these different factors. The other thing is that we think that it's...I don't know about impossible, but extraordinarily difficult to separate your decision-making process from your own emotional state at any given time. I think it's probably a bit fanciful to say that I would make the exact same decisions on the day that my wife left me as the day that my son won an Olympic gold medal. (This applies) also within trading: If I've just had 4 straight up 15% months I think it's extremely difficult to bring the same analysis as if I just lost...if I'm in the middle of a 30% drawdown. What we basically said was that my wife has just walked out on me should not have any effects on the trades that I take. So the second thing that we looked at was what kind of timeframe are we going to trade? If you look at timeframe as a spectrum,

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Subscribe on:

"If someone wants a better return, they have no choice but to take additional risk, no matter how they feel about risk or how risk averse they may be." - Sol Waksman (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group, where host Niels Kaastrup-Larsen continues his conversation with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Listen in to learn the effects of politics in the financial markets and how trend following fits in, the state of cryptocurrency in the current market, and the advice our guests have for investors and their future. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: Why relatively so few investors have added managed futures and trend following to their portfolio, despite all the evidence The lessons different groups of people can still learn from the economic crisis of 2008 How political uncertainty affects where investors put their money "[Many of these finance] technologies are now creating new sub-industries. Who would have thought that cryptocurrencies would be a separate asset class, but it seems like it's emerging as such." - Andrew Lo (Tweet) What Sol sees as the constant lesson we should be learning from these periodic economic events Why investors have a hard time grasping the advantages of the liquidity that trend following brings to investments The present and future impact of artificial intelligence on the finance industry "What have we learned from this last stock market crash? I think we keep learning the same lesson, and that lesson is that when liquidity dries up, all correlations go to 1." - Sol Waksman (Tweet) Why Andrew believes the centralization to one cryptocurrency is inevitable The advice Andrew and Sol have for investors to prepare for the future This episode was sponsored by CME Group: Connect with our guests: Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of Management Learn more about Sol Waksman and BarclayHedge, Ltd. "I think there were a lot of lessons that were offered by the financial crisis, but the real question is who actually took those lessons to heart." - Andrew Lo (Tweet)

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 00:50 - Weekly review 23:00 - Top Tweets 43:40 - Question 1: Michael; Can we apply TF principles to things other than markets (real life)? 48:50 - Question 2: George; What is your competitive advantage? 57:55 - Announcement: Meb Faber will be joining the group in late February, send questions 58:35 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

"I was going through one of those inevitable losing streaks [early in my career] and I had a fundamental question. Does anyone make money trading the futures markets, or is it all a casino set up for the benefit of the exchanges?" - Sol Waksman (Tweet) Welcome to Top Traders Round Table, a podcast series on managed futures brought to you by CME Group. On today's episode, host Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Our guests today have many years of experience in the world of  investing and have watched the finance industry as it has gone through it's many changes. Listen in to learn the historical importance of separating the alpha from the beta, the increase of the volatility of volatility since 2007, and common misconceptions about diversification in a portfolio. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How our guests got their starts in finance Why Andrew thinks that sometimes things need to be believed to be seen Why separating the alpha from the beta has been revolutionary for the entire financial industry "Markets are efficient most of the time. Every once in a while, human behavior ultimately overwhelms the kind of rational deliberation that efficient markets are based on, and we do see periods of fear and greed that ultimately take over. But it's not one or the other, it's both." - Andrew Lo (Tweet) How the narrative of finance and investing has changed over time in the futures industry The increase in the volatility of volatility over the last decade and what that means for managed futures "I think that for the most part, investors misrepresent what they want." - Sol Waksman (Tweet) How the abundance of passive investing tools has changed the investor's experience during market changes What investors are looking for in their tools and strategies What alternative strategies are investors looking at now "The one lesson we learn from academics throughout the whole process of passive investing is that diversification is really key." - Andrew Lo (Tweet) The experiment Andrew does with his audiences he speaks to on their investment preferences What investors need to understand about diversification and risk This episode was sponsored by CME Group: Connect with our guests: Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of Management Learn more about Sol Waksman and BarclayHedge, Ltd. "A stock index has no relevance to the performance of a CTA, but if you calculate alpha by regressing against the stock index, you have a number that is absolutely meaningless." - Sol Waksman (Tweet)

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 02:25 - Weekly recap 08:40 - Top tweets 24:05 - Question 1: CR Capital; Thoughts on Winton retreating from TF 30:55 - Question 2: Bill; Do you add to positions as the trend progresses 34:35 - Question 3: George; Why don’t you include short-term TF systems in a robust TF system 44:40 - Question 4: Nick; How would I know if I’m curve fitting my systems 53:10 - Question 5: Richard; Several questions about: historical data distributions; long-term trend following efficacy and related concerns 1:03:00 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It's a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a "call" each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It's a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of...not least by sending us questions that we can discuss. Please send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com Episode Summary 00:00 - Intro 01:40 - Weekly review 07:30 - Annual review 22:00 - Top Tweets/Related discussions (Good info on process/philosophy this week) 40:20 - Questions 41:00 - Question 1: George 45:00 - Question 2: George 50:00 - Question 3: Michael 1:08:00 - Performance rundown Subscribe on: